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And the incredible thing is that yields are quite low based on historical standards. The risk of lending to most countries at yields that are barely above real
by glimshe 19d ago
And the incredible thing is that yields are quite low based on historical standards. The risk of lending to most countries at yields that are barely above real inflation is massive for portfolio growth.
Let's take the US, where you have to consider lending money to the government for 10 years at 5.009%. This barely covers inflation if you consider real numbers rather than the financial fiction ones that have been published in the last 10-20 years.
In the 90s, an era of relative prosperity when the US was the sole remaining superpower, 5-year treasuries were paying 7-9% with inflation in the 2-4% range!
- solatic 19d ago> 5-year treasuries were paying 7-9% with inflation in the 2-4% range One crucial difference: the US wasn't $40T in debt, and it wasn't pulling trillion dollar deficits. In 1998 the US federal government actually had a surplus! Even 9% interest wasn't going to wreck the Federal budget when the overall amount of debt to be serviced was so much lower. Everything is relative to size. If your older brother lends you a dollar at 100% daily interest, you can still throw a balled-up Jackson at him a couple days later and walk away clean. But ask anyone who agreed to a crazy 20% interest rate on their car loan what it did to their personal finances, and all you'll hear is horror stories. 9% on $40T would be suicide.
- zeroonetwothree 19d agoApart from a brief period (which also had higher inflation) yields were more like 6% in thr 90s.
- mono442 19d agoYields depend the most on the central bank interest rate. The interest rates are still quite low compared to the past.