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"Do you really think if you would get unlimited tokens and a compute cluster that something like a fable or astra frontier model setup couldn't build a better c
by carodgers 17d ago
"Do you really think if you would get unlimited tokens and a compute cluster that something like a fable or astra frontier model setup couldn't build a better chess engine?"
Disconnect it from the internet, where it cannot copy from humans, and no, it certainly will not. If it can copy code from humans, then maybe, with guidance. But if a human is not there to offer guidance, no, I don't think it will improve on stockfish.
Worse, if it cannot copy code from humans, it will fail embarrassingly at playing chess on its own. This April 2026 paper found that frontier models which did not have specialized (human guided) tailoring could not beat an amateur-level bot (1100 ELO), and some were so bad they lost to random play.
https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4
Look at the MAR rates in table 3. When not explicitly provided with a choice of legal moves, no bot could ask for legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many of them asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. All of them continued to request illegal moves even when explicitly asked to choose from legal moves. That's not just less than perfect. That's abysmal.
So, recapping, if the most advanced bots on the planet, in April 2026, are not allowed to copy code written by humans, and are forced to play chess by themselves, they will embarrass themselves. And you and others are asking me to believe they are a threat to me somehow. That kind of talk is disconnected from reality.
What is common with all of the "impressive" examples you gave me? The bot had material to copy from, or a human standing nearby to tell it when it screwed up and suggest a path forward. They are not intelligent. They're so stupid, in fact, I could not trust them to balance my checkbook without knowing guard rails are in place. So spare me the hysterics.
"When do you draw the line of LLM is just some stupid thing vs. AI/AGI?" I'm not sure, but I do know the line is well beyond playing a game of chess without requesting illegal moves 20% of the time. There are 5-year-olds who can do that.
You need to ask yourself some hard questions.
1) Why have I been conditioned to expect that given enough compute, a bot can build anything, unguided?
2) Why have the embarrassing details about bot performance been hidden from me, or at least drowned out by hysterical claims about their wild successes? Why is the human role in these successes never highlighted?
3) What do the people training these bots stand to gain if they convince 51% of the voting population that bots are actually a meaningful threat?
- Gregkion 17d agoThey will probably just rebuild AlphaZero with autoresearch and iterate over it. Chess is not an interesting target for AI Research and not for AGI. Your checkbook doesn't get balanced just beause Magnus Carlsen is doing it for you. You probably don't want him to balance your books i assume. 1. I have not been conditioned, i just understand what it means if you have a lot of compute available to you. Autoresearch becomes feasable, doing a million experiments becomes feasable 2. never? Thats just not true? But yes AI/compute is a significiant part, even with the Navier–Stokes topic: Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpoege said that AI helped them 3. I'm not training these bots and see big issues for society. The most basic ones: Our company spends now millions on AI Tokens and i wouldn't wanna go back. AI helps me to analyse things faster, debug things faster, write code faster etc. and it only gets better. But what does it mean if your devs are now 5-10% more expensive? A reduction of workforce and reduction in budget for consultans. This is real impact and there are A LOT easier jobs out there on a computer than software development. Normally technology starts with the most expensive stuff first, we automated away a lot of these things, with AI you start at the bottom. This has significant impact on a lot of normal people. Blender support just got so much better, this will affect a lot of basic blender developers. And this will continue. Not having jobs for people in a capatilstic world is not good for society if you dont have an answer for this.
- carodgers 17d ago"Chess is not an interesting target for AI Research and not for AGI." I don't care if it's interesting or not. A bot too stupid to play chess is too stupid to be a threat to me. So I reject Dario's fearmongering and that of anyone allied with him.