3 ms·

paywalled in this economy, rek. someone hit me with the synopsis

by trueno 11d ago

bobtheborg 11d ago
maybe this? https://wixx.com/2026/09/11/chevron-ceo-says-depleted-crude-oil-buffers-could-lead-to-higher-prices/ https://wixx.com/2026/09/11/chevron-ceo-says-depleted-crude-...
deleted 11d ago
[deleted]
jcranmer 11d ago
I can't read the article either, but my understanding of the various factors is this: * Houthis have taken control of all of the Yemeni coastline along the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (and an island in the middle of it), which gives them the ability to effectively interdict trade through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, just as Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz. * Not that it matters that much, because the Saudi pipeline that lets it export crude via Yanbu, in the Red Sea, has been disabled, and current estimates suggest that the recovery time is in weeks-to-months. That's about 4-5mbpd of crude oil that's down for the near feature, or about 4% of global crude oil production. * Now that the summer driving season is over, US refineries are starting to switch from summer blends to winter blends, and this is one of the periods that refineries go down for maintenance. So US refinery capacity is down. * The supply shock has been mitigated for the past several months by drawing down reserves (note that reserves were relatively high when the war started). This includes both national strategic petroleum reserves, but also corporate reserves (e.g., tanks on-site at refineries). It seems some of these reserves are starting to hit effective 0. * On top of this, Trump is making it more and more clear that he has no intention of actually doing anything to end to the crisis. For example, he's effectively said that he's not going to do anything before the midterm elections, two months away. Which means the market optimism that the war is going to be over, like, tomorrow is fading.

3 ms·

paywalled in this economy, rek. someone hit me with the synopsis

by trueno 11d ago

paywalled in this economy, rek. someone hit me with the synopsis

bobtheborg 11d ago
maybe this? https://wixx.com/2026/09/11/chevron-ceo-says-depleted-crude-oil-buffers-could-lead-to-higher-prices/ https://wixx.com/2026/09/11/chevron-ceo-says-depleted-crude-...
deleted 11d ago
[deleted]
jcranmer 11d ago
I can't read the article either, but my understanding of the various factors is this: * Houthis have taken control of all of the Yemeni coastline along the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (and an island in the middle of it), which gives them the ability to effectively interdict trade through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, just as Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz. * Not that it matters that much, because the Saudi pipeline that lets it export crude via Yanbu, in the Red Sea, has been disabled, and current estimates suggest that the recovery time is in weeks-to-months. That's about 4-5mbpd of crude oil that's down for the near feature, or about 4% of global crude oil production. * Now that the summer driving season is over, US refineries are starting to switch from summer blends to winter blends, and this is one of the periods that refineries go down for maintenance. So US refinery capacity is down. * The supply shock has been mitigated for the past several months by drawing down reserves (note that reserves were relatively high when the war started). This includes both national strategic petroleum reserves, but also corporate reserves (e.g., tanks on-site at refineries). It seems some of these reserves are starting to hit effective 0. * On top of this, Trump is making it more and more clear that he has no intention of actually doing anything to end to the crisis. For example, he's effectively said that he's not going to do anything before the midterm elections, two months away. Which means the market optimism that the war is going to be over, like, tomorrow is fading.