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This is now an Ed Zitron thread.

ogogmad 19d ago
https://danluu.com/zitron/ https://danluu.com/zitron/ Zitron might be right about there being a bubble, but he goes much further than that when he concludes that therefore it's a scam. So by his logic, because the invention of the Web also resulted in a bubble, the Web is a useless scam. I think Michael Burry (from The Big Short) has a thesis vaguely similar to Zitron's, but with some crucial differences in detail - and Michael Burry is actually smart.
- wonnage 18d ago
  Dan spent 7k words missing the forest for the trees People had been calling a housing bubble since 2003. You quite literally need the market to do dumb things over a period of time before the bubble pops. Otherwise it’s not a bubble! Actually making money on a bubble pop is another story and that does rely on timing. pointing at a history of failed market predictions as a gotcha is about as effective now as it would’ve been in 2003-2007 right up until the bubble popped Right now it’s painfully obvious that there is a bubble, the circular financing is documented, the hype-driven valuations are real, it’s just a waiting game to see who holds the bag
LogicFailsMe 18d ago
Ed Zitron is so last week. Michael Burry so pre-Nvidia earnings call hedge. So the chicken littles had to escalate to AI will kill us instead of dismissing it as a Ponzi Scheme because it just wasn't generating the engagement anymore. In the past two days, two nontechnical people I know approached me deeply concerned that AI would kill us all in a few years. I reassured them this was ludicrous. But f*** me this is irresponsible beyond belief. How do you keep this country competitive when the social and corporate media channels keep telling everyone they are doomed on every possible dimension? But also, once people become numb to this one like they are numb to Zitron and Burry now, what will it take to scare them once more? And how will they be able to distinguish from more doomer hyperbole and a genuine threat like a global recession related to a runaway AI bubble?
- gleezard 18d ago
  > But also, once people become numb to this one like they are numb to Zitron and Burry now, what will it take to scare them once more? Ask Buddhists if they’re scared of dying.
  - LogicFailsMe 18d ago
    If you're saying that this samsaric cycle of ragebait and hyperbole ends in nirvana, I'm all with you. But the chief founder of Nervana is on his third startup, so I am guessing the cycle will continue quite a while yet.

https://danluu.com/zitron/ https://danluu.com/zitron/ Zitron might be right about there being a bubble, but he goes much further than that when he concludes that therefore it's a scam. So by his logic, because the invention of the Web also resulted in a bubble, the Web is a useless scam. I think Michael Burry (from The Big Short) has a thesis vaguely similar to Zitron's, but with some crucial differences in detail - and Michael Burry is actually smart.

wonnage 18d ago
Dan spent 7k words missing the forest for the trees People had been calling a housing bubble since 2003. You quite literally need the market to do dumb things over a period of time before the bubble pops. Otherwise it’s not a bubble! Actually making money on a bubble pop is another story and that does rely on timing. pointing at a history of failed market predictions as a gotcha is about as effective now as it would’ve been in 2003-2007 right up until the bubble popped Right now it’s painfully obvious that there is a bubble, the circular financing is documented, the hype-driven valuations are real, it’s just a waiting game to see who holds the bag

LogicFailsMe 18d ago

Ed Zitron is so last week. Michael Burry so pre-Nvidia earnings call hedge. So the chicken littles had to escalate to AI will kill us instead of dismissing it as a Ponzi Scheme because it just wasn't generating the engagement anymore. In the past two days, two nontechnical people I know approached me deeply concerned that AI would kill us all in a few years. I reassured them this was ludicrous. But f*** me this is irresponsible beyond belief. How do you keep this country competitive when the social and corporate media channels keep telling everyone they are doomed on every possible dimension? But also, once people become numb to this one like they are numb to Zitron and Burry now, what will it take to scare them once more? And how will they be able to distinguish from more doomer hyperbole and a genuine threat like a global recession related to a runaway AI bubble?

gleezard 18d ago
> But also, once people become numb to this one like they are numb to Zitron and Burry now, what will it take to scare them once more? Ask Buddhists if they’re scared of dying.
- LogicFailsMe 18d ago
  If you're saying that this samsaric cycle of ragebait and hyperbole ends in nirvana, I'm all with you. But the chief founder of Nervana is on his third startup, so I am guessing the cycle will continue quite a while yet.