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Higher interest rates basically mean that asset prices will crash, at least in real terms. The value of an asset is the discounted value of all future cash flo
by nostrademons 17d ago
Higher interest rates basically mean that asset prices will crash, at least in real terms. The value of an asset is the discounted value of all future cash flows; as the discount rate goes up, the value goes down, particularly for assets (like AI stocks) where the cash flows are far in the future.
Unfortunately the right asset to hold depends on why rates are going up. If you believe that rates are going up because we're in for high inflation rates ahead and so bondholders need to be compensated for expected face-value depreciation, then you should buy hard assets (gold, oil, Bitcoin) or stocks that generate a lot of cash now (utilities, FANGs, commodity producers like oil companies). But if you believe that rates are going up because the Fed is going to hike rates and get inflation under control, the right asset to hold is cash. Every other asset will lose value as rates go up and cash becomes scarce, and then you can pick them up cheap when we get the inevitable steep recession.
- Ancalagon 17d agoSo buy stocks. Got it.
- glaslong 16d agoAnd if you believe a rate hike will happen but fail to control inflation due to various trade wars and hot wars, while stocks go down due to large correction on a small number of companies who accounted for most of the growth metrics...?
- nostrademons 16d agoThen you have to time the market. Cash or short-term treasuries right now, moved into long-term treasuries when rates finished going up, moved into stocks when the economic damage becomes apparent. Getting the timing right is left as an exercise for the reader.
- glaslong 16d ago"I want to get off Mr Bones Wild Ride" God help me this market has me considering BTAL, DBMF, TAIL puts, intl equity and gold......