28 ms·

Timing matters. If the labs succeed here they will likely do so by paying off Trump, who doesn't care. In 2028 a maximalist case could then be made to national

Timing matters. If the labs succeed here they will likely do so by paying off Trump, who doesn't care. In 2028 a maximalist case could then be made to nationalize them. The government actually running them isn't great, but no one ever gets 100% of they want in politics. It's about trafeoffs. If the labs use the current government to pull up the ladder, then the voters should vote for a government to swing hard to punish them. In theory the threat of this should also act as a deterrent. There's nothing weird about this at all. Politics is all about push and pull, carrot and stick. No one has permanent influence over affairs, and no one ever gets 100% of what they want. Yet it is entirely coherent to advocate for something like nationalization or take your pick of threat to private capital if they essentially cheat by pulling up the ladder because they've suddenly decided they don't want to compete.

protocolture 12d ago
>then the voters should vote for a government to swing hard to punish them. Its very unlikely that AI will be on the ballot.
- godwinson__4-8 12d ago
  Interesting perspective. I've frequently heard the opposite, and I find this convincing. Why do you think AI will not be a major political issue in 2028? Perhaps to level set do you think it is a political issue now? Do you expect it to be less politicized in two years? Why?
  - protocolture 12d ago
    Well Trump is signalling that he is happy to let AI rip. Bernie wants there to be an extreme shutdown of AI immediately. So lets say you had 2 billion dollars of slush and worked for OpenAI and anthropic. You would immediately start to grease the paws of republicans to support just enough regulation to slow your competitors. And you would start to grease the paws of democrats to push for a "Moderate centrist" position away from Bernie, leading towards Regulation. Ice Cream Vendor problem leads you straight into both sides supporting the same moderate regulation that OpenAI/Anthropic will write for them. Keep in mind its going to be a noisy election cycle with Donald Trumps idiot successor vs whatever goofball the democrats vomit up arguing about tariffs, trade partners, healthcare, ICE etc. Democrat falls out of line "You just want China to beat us at AI" Republican falls out of line "You are just a techbro supporting epstein affiliate" Then theres the standard 99% + chance regarding US election promises that people just dont act on it at all. Etc etc etc.
    - deleted 12d ago
      [deleted]

protocolture 12d ago

>then the voters should vote for a government to swing hard to punish them. Its very unlikely that AI will be on the ballot.

godwinson__4-8 12d ago
Interesting perspective. I've frequently heard the opposite, and I find this convincing. Why do you think AI will not be a major political issue in 2028? Perhaps to level set do you think it is a political issue now? Do you expect it to be less politicized in two years? Why?
- protocolture 12d ago
  Well Trump is signalling that he is happy to let AI rip. Bernie wants there to be an extreme shutdown of AI immediately. So lets say you had 2 billion dollars of slush and worked for OpenAI and anthropic. You would immediately start to grease the paws of republicans to support just enough regulation to slow your competitors. And you would start to grease the paws of democrats to push for a "Moderate centrist" position away from Bernie, leading towards Regulation. Ice Cream Vendor problem leads you straight into both sides supporting the same moderate regulation that OpenAI/Anthropic will write for them. Keep in mind its going to be a noisy election cycle with Donald Trumps idiot successor vs whatever goofball the democrats vomit up arguing about tariffs, trade partners, healthcare, ICE etc. Democrat falls out of line "You just want China to beat us at AI" Republican falls out of line "You are just a techbro supporting epstein affiliate" Then theres the standard 99% + chance regarding US election promises that people just dont act on it at all. Etc etc etc.
  - deleted 12d ago
    [deleted]