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Would you have said the same thing during the Cold War when nuclear weapons were proliferating? That’s the equivalent of what the developing offensive capabilit

by mcmcmc 12d ago

Would you have said the same thing during the Cold War when nuclear weapons were proliferating? That’s the equivalent of what the developing offensive capabilities of models, basically cyber nukes. Or WMDs in general. OpenAI is accidentally hacking people, if someone made the decision to deliberately direct an agent swarm to attack national infrastructure you don’t think they could do much worse? Human extinction is a long shot but I wouldn’t say the same about a mass casualty event of some kind, and who knows what that might spark.

fasterik 12d ago
Of course. Even in an all-out nuclear war, the probability of human extinction is close to zero.
- ShinyLeftPad 12d ago
  Then it's all fine right? /s Killing even 10% of humanity should be unacceptable, can't believe this argument is even happening
  - fasterik 12d ago
    Of course it would be unacceptable. Honestly, this thread feels like talking to people who have the reading comprehension of a 5th grader.
    - ShinyLeftPad 12d ago
      Someone said "AI might kill everybody soon" and prevailing argument is "it's wrong because it's not gonna be like everybody everybody".
      - fasterik 12d ago
        It's the AI doomers who have chosen to frame the argument in terms of extinction. Even if they were only claiming that 1% of the world population will be killed in the next 10 years, it would still be an extraordinary claim that hasn't been established with any amount of rigor. I'll reiterate the original point: these people are not serious, they're spreading alarmist nonsense, and they're undermining the public's trust in experts.
        ShinyLeftPad 12d ago
        There is no proof possible. There is no experiment that can show something humanity scale will happen. There are even no remotely similar precedents in the past to extrapolate. The actual established real evidence is that this tech is showing unprecedented capabilities (including destructive) and its safety guardrails are lacking.

by mcmcmc 12d ago

fasterik 12d ago

Of course. Even in an all-out nuclear war, the probability of human extinction is close to zero.

ShinyLeftPad 12d ago
Then it's all fine right? /s Killing even 10% of humanity should be unacceptable, can't believe this argument is even happening
- fasterik 12d ago
  Of course it would be unacceptable. Honestly, this thread feels like talking to people who have the reading comprehension of a 5th grader.
  - ShinyLeftPad 12d ago
    Someone said "AI might kill everybody soon" and prevailing argument is "it's wrong because it's not gonna be like everybody everybody".
    - fasterik 12d ago
      It's the AI doomers who have chosen to frame the argument in terms of extinction. Even if they were only claiming that 1% of the world population will be killed in the next 10 years, it would still be an extraordinary claim that hasn't been established with any amount of rigor. I'll reiterate the original point: these people are not serious, they're spreading alarmist nonsense, and they're undermining the public's trust in experts.
      - ShinyLeftPad 12d ago
        There is no proof possible. There is no experiment that can show something humanity scale will happen. There are even no remotely similar precedents in the past to extrapolate. The actual established real evidence is that this tech is showing unprecedented capabilities (including destructive) and its safety guardrails are lacking.