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> but not so well with AI revenue Nobody is doing well enough with AI revenue ATM (https://isaiprofitable.com/ https://isaiprofitable.com/). At the moment it i

> but not so well with AI revenue Nobody is doing well enough with AI revenue ATM (https://isaiprofitable.com/ https://isaiprofitable.com/). At the moment it is probably more about market share of users, that is where the investment capital will need to be clawed back from when it starts to be called back (or replacement money will need to come from if the investment cycle simply stops giving generously).

karim79 13d ago
Love this. Can we also have an environmental cost calculator somehow?
- xnx 12d ago
  Dollars are a very good first estimate of environmental cost.
deleted 12d ago
[deleted]
Gareth321 12d ago
While true, Google is particularly vulnerable to AI disrupting the traditional internet ad model. They have to figure out how to make AI profitable or Google will suffer catastrophic revenue, profit, and stock price declines in short order.
- dspillett 12d ago
  Can they not just do what they expected sites to do when their search results started including key extracts from sites, significantly reducing click-throughs to news pages and such? [couldn't resist the snark, I don't exactly feel sorry for them here!]
  - Gareth321 12d ago
    It is, as you imply, poetic justice.
- akoboldfrying 12d ago
  Isn't it obvious? If/when the norm shifts from "googling" everything to asking an LLM, they'll stick ads in Gemini output. They'll probably be less annoying than ads in Google Search results, because people ask LLMs more detailed, context-laden questions.
  - Gareth321 12d ago
    I think this is their obvious strategy. What's not so obvious is that they'll succeed. Their share of consumer LLM users is around 27%. Their share of search engine users is above 91%. If current growth trajectory holds (which is admittedly unpredictable), Google will command far less of the global internet ad market. I expect aggregate ad revenue to climb, so this might sting less, but much of Google's stock price imputes their dominant market position (and implied moat). A large proportion of users don't first navigate to Google anymore. They ask ChatGPT. Commoditised LLMs (or worse, a dominant provider which isn't Google) is a very bad scenario for Google. I think they're going to have to diversify. Cloud compute revenue keeps climbing. Their deal with Apple for "small" LLMs suggests they might have opportunities to specialise models for specific tasks. They still command a massive lead in things like Maps and Gmail, and they can lean on those.
mastermage 12d ago
except for NVIDIA
- dspillett 12d ago
  And, perhaps to a lesser extent, other relevant hardware companies. In a gold rush the shovel makers always do well.

karim79 13d ago

Love this. Can we also have an environmental cost calculator somehow?

xnx 12d ago
Dollars are a very good first estimate of environmental cost.

deleted 12d ago

[deleted]

Gareth321 12d ago

While true, Google is particularly vulnerable to AI disrupting the traditional internet ad model. They have to figure out how to make AI profitable or Google will suffer catastrophic revenue, profit, and stock price declines in short order.

dspillett 12d ago
Can they not just do what they expected sites to do when their search results started including key extracts from sites, significantly reducing click-throughs to news pages and such? [couldn't resist the snark, I don't exactly feel sorry for them here!]
- Gareth321 12d ago
  It is, as you imply, poetic justice.
akoboldfrying 12d ago
Isn't it obvious? If/when the norm shifts from "googling" everything to asking an LLM, they'll stick ads in Gemini output. They'll probably be less annoying than ads in Google Search results, because people ask LLMs more detailed, context-laden questions.
- Gareth321 12d ago
  I think this is their obvious strategy. What's not so obvious is that they'll succeed. Their share of consumer LLM users is around 27%. Their share of search engine users is above 91%. If current growth trajectory holds (which is admittedly unpredictable), Google will command far less of the global internet ad market. I expect aggregate ad revenue to climb, so this might sting less, but much of Google's stock price imputes their dominant market position (and implied moat). A large proportion of users don't first navigate to Google anymore. They ask ChatGPT. Commoditised LLMs (or worse, a dominant provider which isn't Google) is a very bad scenario for Google. I think they're going to have to diversify. Cloud compute revenue keeps climbing. Their deal with Apple for "small" LLMs suggests they might have opportunities to specialise models for specific tasks. They still command a massive lead in things like Maps and Gmail, and they can lean on those.

mastermage 12d ago

except for NVIDIA

dspillett 12d ago
And, perhaps to a lesser extent, other relevant hardware companies. In a gold rush the shovel makers always do well.