It was being speculated just a few months ago that Putin is thinking about it/being encouraged to use them. He must be seen to win at all costs, and not-winning

It was being speculated just a few months ago that Putin is thinking about it/being encouraged to use them. He must be seen to win at all costs, and not-winning is therefore seen as a threat to russian statehood. E.g. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/cornered-putin-under-pressure-use-tactical-nuclear-weapons-4496866 https://inews.co.uk/news/world/cornered-putin-under-pressure... https://www.newsweek.com/putin-tactical-nukes-radioactive-baloney-russia-ukraine-12382920 https://www.newsweek.com/putin-tactical-nukes-radioactive-ba... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-hawks-urge-putin-escalate-war-drop-us-talks-ukraine-strikes-deep-2026-06-26/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-hawks-urge-puti... I'd put it at 10-15% chance easy.