I think it's possible that it will play out that way, and that it's just too soon to see it. Tao was very optimistic about AI up until a few months ago, and I

I think it's possible that it will play out that way, and that it's just too soon to see it. Tao was very optimistic about AI up until a few months ago, and I think what's changed is that an AI generated proof isn't that informative unless it is understandable by humans. So far experts are finding the solution to Navier-Stokes incomprehensible, so we only learn one thing (it's false), instead of the hundreds of things we learn from reading a proof we can understand. Maybe this is a one-off, or maybe in a few weeks we'll figure out how to get AI to explain the proof in terms we can understand. Then math research will accelerate. But maybe it's not a one-off, and by this time next year we will have an oracle that just answers all of our questions, but in such a way that we don't even know what questions to ask anymore. Then AI will just mop up the existing and the subject will end.