3 ms·

Couldn't be more wrong. The market for new RTSs is too tiny and saturated to turn a profit on any new IP. The small existing player base is too entrenched to mo

Couldn't be more wrong. The market for new RTSs is too tiny and saturated to turn a profit on any new IP. The small existing player base is too entrenched to move away from the old established IPs that are still popular to something new and unproven.

detritus 13d ago
Go on?
- PorciiVorbesc 13d ago
  Gon on, as in you mean like to explain the obvious? Just google/chatgpt sales of RTS games vs shooters and other shit. Good luck convincing an exec to give you 200 million $ to make a new RTS for the 50 player based market out there who's playing the oldies anyway: AOE, RA, SC, etc. It's a small and saturated market that's long been fished out and no point investing into, other than HD remakes/remasters of previously mentioned established IP.
  - mcmcmc 13d ago
    MOBAs largely absorbed the younger player base that would have been into traditional RTS games. The whole genre came out of a Warcraft mod.
- Ralfp 13d ago
  Tempest Rising was taunted as the old school C&C RTS comeback and it ended as niche game with small player base and 9.5k player peak on Steam. Probably best RTS game going on currently is Beyond All Reason, and that's because guys are doing it as an open source clone/followup to Total Annihilation and Supreme Commander Alliances and not actual business (but they started to look for a way to monetize it to fund future development).
  - card_zero 13d ago
    Taunted = vaunted?
    - biglyburrito 13d ago
      Maybe they meant "touted" instead of "taunted". https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tout https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tout
gamblor956 13d ago
Tempest Rising made more in profits than Marathon, despite selling a fraction as many copies. Given that Marathon is unlikely to ever make a profit, Tempest Rising technically made infinitely more in profits than Marathon did.
- PorciiVorbesc 13d ago
  >Tempest Rising made more in profits than Marathon Choosing the biggest flop as your benchmark is a very poor argument. If you lose half as much money as Marathon, you're technically twice as good, but it's still a flop and investors and publishers want successes, not half flops. Marathon existing does not justify the investments into new RTS games. Quite the contrary. Marathon got hundreds of millions in cash because the shooter genre was making billions (at the time) so for them it was worth the gamble even if they lost. But the RTS genre is not making nearly enough money to justify Marathon levels of gambling on new IPs.
  - gamblor956 13d ago
    Quite the contrary. Marathon got hundreds of millions in cash because the shooter genre was making billions (at the time) so for them it was worth the gamble even if they lost. Two shooters were making billions at the time Marathon began pre-production (Fortnite and Destiny). Only two other live-service AAA shooters have made back their budgets (Apex Legends and The Division). Most live-action shooters generated huge losses; even Destiny wasn't doing great anymore by the time Sony acquired Bungie. Sony itself had a horrendous track record with live-service games (of any genre). Other than Final Fantasy Online they have no profitable live-service games developed internally (Destiny and Helldivers are both acquisitions). But the RTS genre is not making nearly enough money to justify Marathon levels of gambling on new IPs. We agree on the first half of that statement, but (a) RTS games don't need Marathon levels of gambling to be successful and (b) live-service shooters also aren't worth the gamble of Marathon levels of spending. Tempest Rising cost less than $10 million to develop, which is less than 1/25th of what Marathon cost. Starcraft 2, the most expensive RTS of all time, cost about $150 million (in today's dollars) and made that back in its first month and made at least $240 million in revenue before going free-to-play. COH3 cost somewhere between $25m and $50m, and earned approximately $50m in sales but also received significant tax incentives in Canada, for a modest profit. On the AA front, Iron Harvest cost approximately $5 million and grossed $15m ($10m going to the studio), for a 100% profit. Similarly, Zerospace has grossed over $5 million on a $2.5m budget. Meanwhile, Fortnite, Destiny, Marathon, and Apex Legend revenues have all been trending downhill for several years. All of the studios behind these games have had sizable layoffs. Sony has lost more on Marathon alone than every AA and AAA RTS game's development budget in the last decade. To put it bluntly: the era of the live-service shooter is almost as dead as the RTS era. Fortnite is the only thing keeping the genre alive. Objectively speaking, if the goal is to make a profit, RTSs are a lower risk than shooters. If the goal is to lose money, make a live-action shooter.
promano 13d ago
Starcraft III would be as far from a new IP as you could go while still making an RTS. Except for a Warcraft IV, I guess.
- PorciiVorbesc 13d ago
  >Starcraft III would be as far from a new IP as you could go while still making an RTS What are existing players missing from Starcraft 2 to justify buying Starcraft 3 so that Blizzard can justify the money to develop it?
Razengan 13d ago
Guy you're out of touch There's quite a few new RTS games coming out
- PorciiVorbesc 13d ago
  >There's quite a few new RTS games coming out And how many copies are they gonna sell? How big is their player base? All important things bean counters want to know before they pony up north of seven figures of investor money into another RTS and not into another looter shooter instead with a 100x revenue and 100x player base.
  - kllrnohj 12d ago
    Starcraft 2 was over 6 million sales before its final expansion even came out. That seems like the obvious player base for a Starcraft 3, and it seems more than large enough for a major release.
    - PorciiVorbesc 12d ago
      >Starcraft 2 was over 6 million sales before its final expansion even came out. GTA 6 preorders beat that in like a week and the game isn't even out and no gameplay footage was even show. >That seems like the obvious player base for a Starcraft 3 A lot of that player based has aged out of the game or will stick to playing SC2 instead of spending 80-100$ on buying the same game over again. RTS have reached diminishing returns. There's not much more you can add to SC2 to improve it and convince people to spend on buying a new game. SC2 is feature complete.
      - kllrnohj 11d ago
        > GTA 6 preorders beat that in like a week and the game isn't even out and no gameplay footage was even show. Really? That's going to be your measuring stick? So anything that isn't as successful as GTA 6 is a failure that shouldn't ever exist again? In fact any genre that isn't as successful as GTA 6 should just be wholesale cancelled? A game is successful if it makes a profit. Other games making more profit doesn't suddenly make them failures. This isn't a zero-sum game. > A lot of that player based has aged out of the game What does this even mean? Gamers don't "age out". We're long past the era of pretending Nintendo is a children's toy...
iAMkenough 12d ago
So instead of serving StarCraft’s dedicated fan base, they’re going to directly compete with the likes of Halo and GTA. StarCraft: Ghost all over again.

detritus 13d ago

Go on?

PorciiVorbesc 13d ago
Gon on, as in you mean like to explain the obvious? Just google/chatgpt sales of RTS games vs shooters and other shit. Good luck convincing an exec to give you 200 million $ to make a new RTS for the 50 player based market out there who's playing the oldies anyway: AOE, RA, SC, etc. It's a small and saturated market that's long been fished out and no point investing into, other than HD remakes/remasters of previously mentioned established IP.
- mcmcmc 13d ago
  MOBAs largely absorbed the younger player base that would have been into traditional RTS games. The whole genre came out of a Warcraft mod.
Ralfp 13d ago
Tempest Rising was taunted as the old school C&C RTS comeback and it ended as niche game with small player base and 9.5k player peak on Steam. Probably best RTS game going on currently is Beyond All Reason, and that's because guys are doing it as an open source clone/followup to Total Annihilation and Supreme Commander Alliances and not actual business (but they started to look for a way to monetize it to fund future development).
- card_zero 13d ago
  Taunted = vaunted?
  - biglyburrito 13d ago
    Maybe they meant "touted" instead of "taunted". https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tout https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tout

gamblor956 13d ago

Tempest Rising made more in profits than Marathon, despite selling a fraction as many copies. Given that Marathon is unlikely to ever make a profit, Tempest Rising technically made infinitely more in profits than Marathon did.

PorciiVorbesc 13d ago
>Tempest Rising made more in profits than Marathon Choosing the biggest flop as your benchmark is a very poor argument. If you lose half as much money as Marathon, you're technically twice as good, but it's still a flop and investors and publishers want successes, not half flops. Marathon existing does not justify the investments into new RTS games. Quite the contrary. Marathon got hundreds of millions in cash because the shooter genre was making billions (at the time) so for them it was worth the gamble even if they lost. But the RTS genre is not making nearly enough money to justify Marathon levels of gambling on new IPs.
- gamblor956 13d ago
  Quite the contrary. Marathon got hundreds of millions in cash because the shooter genre was making billions (at the time) so for them it was worth the gamble even if they lost. Two shooters were making billions at the time Marathon began pre-production (Fortnite and Destiny). Only two other live-service AAA shooters have made back their budgets (Apex Legends and The Division). Most live-action shooters generated huge losses; even Destiny wasn't doing great anymore by the time Sony acquired Bungie. Sony itself had a horrendous track record with live-service games (of any genre). Other than Final Fantasy Online they have no profitable live-service games developed internally (Destiny and Helldivers are both acquisitions). But the RTS genre is not making nearly enough money to justify Marathon levels of gambling on new IPs. We agree on the first half of that statement, but (a) RTS games don't need Marathon levels of gambling to be successful and (b) live-service shooters also aren't worth the gamble of Marathon levels of spending. Tempest Rising cost less than $10 million to develop, which is less than 1/25th of what Marathon cost. Starcraft 2, the most expensive RTS of all time, cost about $150 million (in today's dollars) and made that back in its first month and made at least $240 million in revenue before going free-to-play. COH3 cost somewhere between $25m and $50m, and earned approximately $50m in sales but also received significant tax incentives in Canada, for a modest profit. On the AA front, Iron Harvest cost approximately $5 million and grossed $15m ($10m going to the studio), for a 100% profit. Similarly, Zerospace has grossed over $5 million on a $2.5m budget. Meanwhile, Fortnite, Destiny, Marathon, and Apex Legend revenues have all been trending downhill for several years. All of the studios behind these games have had sizable layoffs. Sony has lost more on Marathon alone than every AA and AAA RTS game's development budget in the last decade. To put it bluntly: the era of the live-service shooter is almost as dead as the RTS era. Fortnite is the only thing keeping the genre alive. Objectively speaking, if the goal is to make a profit, RTSs are a lower risk than shooters. If the goal is to lose money, make a live-action shooter.

promano 13d ago

Starcraft III would be as far from a new IP as you could go while still making an RTS. Except for a Warcraft IV, I guess.

PorciiVorbesc 13d ago
>Starcraft III would be as far from a new IP as you could go while still making an RTS What are existing players missing from Starcraft 2 to justify buying Starcraft 3 so that Blizzard can justify the money to develop it?

Razengan 13d ago

Guy you're out of touch There's quite a few new RTS games coming out

PorciiVorbesc 13d ago
>There's quite a few new RTS games coming out And how many copies are they gonna sell? How big is their player base? All important things bean counters want to know before they pony up north of seven figures of investor money into another RTS and not into another looter shooter instead with a 100x revenue and 100x player base.
- kllrnohj 12d ago
  Starcraft 2 was over 6 million sales before its final expansion even came out. That seems like the obvious player base for a Starcraft 3, and it seems more than large enough for a major release.
  - PorciiVorbesc 12d ago
    >Starcraft 2 was over 6 million sales before its final expansion even came out. GTA 6 preorders beat that in like a week and the game isn't even out and no gameplay footage was even show. >That seems like the obvious player base for a Starcraft 3 A lot of that player based has aged out of the game or will stick to playing SC2 instead of spending 80-100$ on buying the same game over again. RTS have reached diminishing returns. There's not much more you can add to SC2 to improve it and convince people to spend on buying a new game. SC2 is feature complete.
    - kllrnohj 11d ago
      > GTA 6 preorders beat that in like a week and the game isn't even out and no gameplay footage was even show. Really? That's going to be your measuring stick? So anything that isn't as successful as GTA 6 is a failure that shouldn't ever exist again? In fact any genre that isn't as successful as GTA 6 should just be wholesale cancelled? A game is successful if it makes a profit. Other games making more profit doesn't suddenly make them failures. This isn't a zero-sum game. > A lot of that player based has aged out of the game What does this even mean? Gamers don't "age out". We're long past the era of pretending Nintendo is a children's toy...

iAMkenough 12d ago

So instead of serving StarCraft’s dedicated fan base, they’re going to directly compete with the likes of Halo and GTA. StarCraft: Ghost all over again.