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I think you greatly overestimate how many 8-10 year old EVs will actually require replacement batteries. Barring a few models with poor engineering choices, mos

I think you greatly overestimate how many 8-10 year old EVs will actually require replacement batteries. Barring a few models with poor engineering choices, most cars will still have 80% of their capacity after 10 years and won't have the downsides of having a 10 year old ICE engine with a variable record of maintenance.

graemep 19d ago
EVs that are 10 years old now will have a lower range than current models, AFAIK, so 80% of that might still be limiting. They will also be slower charging.
- bdangubic 19d ago
  Very true on both accounts (I own a 12-year old Tesla) but for vast majority of EV owners this is simply not an issue.
  - graemep 19d ago
    Do the vast majority never drive a long distance? If you use a car purely for short journeys maybe. Is this common in the US? Everywhere I have lived most people do atleast some long (i.e. an ICE car needs refuelling at some point) some long trips.
    - minnowguy 19d ago
      I have friends with an EV that just rent an ICE car for road trips.
      - bdangubic 19d ago
        exactly this. EVs are definitely not for road-trip-every-week families, I rent a car 4-5x per year (my other car is EV as well)
ricardobayes 19d ago
Is an EV with 80% battery still usable? I ask because phones with 80% batteries are practically e-waste, or urgently needing a replacement. It's not a fair comparison but that degraded battery in a phone is a problem, because the phone still requires a certain amount of power that the battery now struggles to provide and overheats, in many cases, causing secondary damage to other components (like the display).
- hakfoo 19d ago
  Phone batteries have relatively little margin. If it lasts barely a full day at full capacity, going down to 80% means you can no longer reliably say "I'll charge it overnight". A car battery that lasted 300km new but now only 200km is still entirely adequate for a commuter with a 25km typical commute, and occasional 75km days out.
qball 18d ago
Perhaps, but remember that people have taken cues from their most-used battery-powered device. In this case, their phone (or laptop). A degraded battery in these devices leads to things like random power-offs or dropping to 1% randomly (the display does not correct itself as it assumes it's safer to round down), particularly when it's cold. When it shuts itself down, it clearly displays that it has power remaining, but the device communicates that it thinks it knows better than you. It is this bad software (and bad hardware) in these computing devices that ultimately what has led to EVs- new and especially used- being a tough sell far before the first one was ever released. The technology has proven fundamentally untrustworthy in low-stakes applications; why should it now be trusted in high-stakes applications? (The answer so far has been "give them an utterly ridiculous horsepower figure", which did work, but it turns out normal cars can do that pretty easily too, and they're cheaper.)

graemep 19d ago

EVs that are 10 years old now will have a lower range than current models, AFAIK, so 80% of that might still be limiting. They will also be slower charging.

bdangubic 19d ago
Very true on both accounts (I own a 12-year old Tesla) but for vast majority of EV owners this is simply not an issue.
- graemep 19d ago
  Do the vast majority never drive a long distance? If you use a car purely for short journeys maybe. Is this common in the US? Everywhere I have lived most people do atleast some long (i.e. an ICE car needs refuelling at some point) some long trips.
  - minnowguy 19d ago
    I have friends with an EV that just rent an ICE car for road trips.
    - bdangubic 19d ago
      exactly this. EVs are definitely not for road-trip-every-week families, I rent a car 4-5x per year (my other car is EV as well)

ricardobayes 19d ago

Is an EV with 80% battery still usable? I ask because phones with 80% batteries are practically e-waste, or urgently needing a replacement. It's not a fair comparison but that degraded battery in a phone is a problem, because the phone still requires a certain amount of power that the battery now struggles to provide and overheats, in many cases, causing secondary damage to other components (like the display).

hakfoo 19d ago
Phone batteries have relatively little margin. If it lasts barely a full day at full capacity, going down to 80% means you can no longer reliably say "I'll charge it overnight". A car battery that lasted 300km new but now only 200km is still entirely adequate for a commuter with a 25km typical commute, and occasional 75km days out.

qball 18d ago

Perhaps, but remember that people have taken cues from their most-used battery-powered device. In this case, their phone (or laptop). A degraded battery in these devices leads to things like random power-offs or dropping to 1% randomly (the display does not correct itself as it assumes it's safer to round down), particularly when it's cold. When it shuts itself down, it clearly displays that it has power remaining, but the device communicates that it thinks it knows better than you. It is this bad software (and bad hardware) in these computing devices that ultimately what has led to EVs- new and especially used- being a tough sell far before the first one was ever released. The technology has proven fundamentally untrustworthy in low-stakes applications; why should it now be trusted in high-stakes applications? (The answer so far has been "give them an utterly ridiculous horsepower figure", which did work, but it turns out normal cars can do that pretty easily too, and they're cheaper.)