3 ms·
> Many people working at frontier labs came out this week with estimates of 10% chance of catastrophic harm or greater. The only reason people with P(Doom) of
by dragonwriter 14d ago
> Many people working at frontier labs came out this week with estimates of 10% chance of catastrophic harm or greater.
The only reason people with P(Doom) of around 10% are even noticed these days because we've run out of new voices in the field giving 50%+ P(Doom) speculations (none of them are grounded enough to reasonably be referred to as "estimates".)
- comp_throw7 14d agoProbabilities are subjective states of belief! They have always been subjective states of belief! There is no such thing as a "probability" out there in the real world (ignoring random quantum stuff, which isn't what anybody is talking about). If you took out a coin right now and flipped it, the true odds of it coming up heads are not 50%, but those are (roughly) the correct betting odds for an external observer to assign to it.