4 ms·

The things you’re describing aren’t “alternatives to driving.” They perform a different function. Most Americans don’t aspire to live like Chinese people packed

by rayiner 29d ago

The things you’re describing aren’t “alternatives to driving.” They perform a different function. Most Americans don’t aspire to live like Chinese people packed into high rises with 0.8 kids taking the train to work. They want to live where they want to live, then take their 2-3 kids to school and themselves to work 10-15 miles away without having to plan their lives around a public transit schedule.

toomuchtodo 29d ago
A majority of American households (58.4%) are childless and ~80% of Americans live in urban areas per the US Census Bureau. I think you might be misreading the desires of most Americans, based on the data. I agree Americans love their cars, but will they love them with oil prices above $100-$120/barrel persistently? To be determined. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-american-households-have-changed-over-time/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-american-households-hav... > Personal preference plays a significant role in changing attitudes toward parenthood. Among Americans under 50 without children, 57% said they simply didn’t want kids, while 44% preferred to focus on other priorities. Financial concerns also weighed heavily, with 36% citing the cost of raising children—three times the rate among childless people over 50. https://www.socialexplorer.com/home/post/the-us-urban-population-how-americans-really-live-in-cities https://www.socialexplorer.com/home/post/the-us-urban-popula... > According to the 2020–2024 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, approximately 286 million Americans (roughly 94 percent of the population) live in metropolitan statistical areas. Just 17.7 million people, about 6 percent, live entirely outside any metro or micropolitan area. > The popular image of America as a land of small towns and open plains is, statistically speaking, a minority experience. The story of 21st-century America is, above all, a story of cities.
- hollerith 28d ago
  >Among Americans under 50 without children, 57% said they simply didn’t want kids Your 57% lacks relevance to the current conversation because it is 57% of a small percentage of Americans. 42 to 43% of Americans are either under 18 or a parent of an under-18-yo. Plus of course some outside that group will soon become parents. And some are empty-nesters who prefer to keep on living in the neighborhood they lived in when they were raising their children.
  - toomuchtodo 28d ago
    US total fertility rate is at record lows, and continues to decline. Childfree/childless rates are up, and will continue to climb. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11537490/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11537490/ https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5777587/teen-birth-rates-hit-another-historical-low-2025-cdc https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5777587/teen-birth-rate... https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/09/older-mothers.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/09/older-mothers... https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/number-of-americans-who-never-want-to-have-children-has-doubled-research-says https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/number-of-americans-who-... https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/the-demographic-dead-end-2026-state-of-fertility-report https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/the-demographic-dead-end-... https://ifstudies.org/blog/theres-no-mystery-to-americas-fertility-decline https://ifstudies.org/blog/theres-no-mystery-to-americas-fer... https://ifstudies.org/insights?id=3886 https://ifstudies.org/insights?id=3886 https://ifstudies.org/blog/1-in-4-projecting-childlessness-among-todays-young-women https://ifstudies.org/blog/1-in-4-projecting-childlessness-a...
    - rayiner 28d ago
      > Childfree/childless rates are up, and will continue to climb Desired family size is still 2.7 kids, and has been stable at that number for over 50 years: https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-size-remains-above-two-children.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-s... A growing gap between how many kids people want and how many they have militates against copying the dense housing patterns of Asian countries that have the lowest birth rates in the world.
      - toomuchtodo 28d ago
        Desired fertility is like desired Lambos, all that matters is realized fertility. And realized fertility is trending lower globally, as shown by my numerous citations. I’m willing to bet on this if you want, as a demographic scholar. https://ourworldindata.org/which-countries-have-already-passed-peak-population-and-when-will-the-rest-do-so https://ourworldindata.org/which-countries-have-already-pass... https://ourworldindata.org/population-simulation-tool https://ourworldindata.org/population-simulation-tool Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 - August 2026 The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 - August 2025 (400 comments) The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival - https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbea597263a88f27075bd6eb49_17385_suerf.pdf https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe... - SUERF Policy Note, Issue No 197, October 2020 “Talk is cheap, show me the fertility rate.”
- rayiner 28d ago
  The census definition of “urban area” means nothing. I technically live in an “urban area” according to the census definition, but there’s soybean farms five minutes down the road from me. The same is true for the definition of “childless” people. It counts my parents, who don’t have children living at home, but have my kids coming over to their house multiple times per week. Only 15% of women never have children. Most people arrange their living circumstances with the goal of eventually having kids. And once the kids grow up and leave, most people want to stay in the same area.
Zambyte 29d ago
I'm American, and I don't normally drive, because I use busses, bikes, and trains to get to my destinations. I sold my last (hopefully ever) car over a year ago. I'm sorry to shatter the dreams of most Americans, but the world has finite resources. Buying a car when you're poor is hard, because cars are expensive, because they are extremely resource demanding. Even with all the subsidies drivers receive, they still usually struggle with the cost. By the way, you don't have to look at public transit schedules when your public transit works. I recommend visiting countries outside the US that have functional infrastructure.
- rayiner 28d ago
  > By the way, you don't have to look at public transit schedules when your public transit works. I recommend visiting countries outside the US that have functional infrastructure. I go to Japan once or twice a year. Even in Japan, many people take regional rail or (gasp!) busses, and those don't run every 5 minutes.
- rangestransform 27d ago
  > but the world has finite resources we pay our government to point guns at other people, so that resources become their problem and not ours
- hollerith 26d ago
  You might consider it obvious that the personal car is more resource-demanding than the alternatives, but I don't, particularly in a country with as low a population density as the US.

by rayiner 29d ago

toomuchtodo 29d ago

A majority of American households (58.4%) are childless and ~80% of Americans live in urban areas per the US Census Bureau. I think you might be misreading the desires of most Americans, based on the data. I agree Americans love their cars, but will they love them with oil prices above $100-$120/barrel persistently? To be determined. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-american-households-have-changed-over-time/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-american-households-hav... > Personal preference plays a significant role in changing attitudes toward parenthood. Among Americans under 50 without children, 57% said they simply didn’t want kids, while 44% preferred to focus on other priorities. Financial concerns also weighed heavily, with 36% citing the cost of raising children—three times the rate among childless people over 50. https://www.socialexplorer.com/home/post/the-us-urban-population-how-americans-really-live-in-cities https://www.socialexplorer.com/home/post/the-us-urban-popula... > According to the 2020–2024 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, approximately 286 million Americans (roughly 94 percent of the population) live in metropolitan statistical areas. Just 17.7 million people, about 6 percent, live entirely outside any metro or micropolitan area. > The popular image of America as a land of small towns and open plains is, statistically speaking, a minority experience. The story of 21st-century America is, above all, a story of cities.

hollerith 28d ago
>Among Americans under 50 without children, 57% said they simply didn’t want kids Your 57% lacks relevance to the current conversation because it is 57% of a small percentage of Americans. 42 to 43% of Americans are either under 18 or a parent of an under-18-yo. Plus of course some outside that group will soon become parents. And some are empty-nesters who prefer to keep on living in the neighborhood they lived in when they were raising their children.
- toomuchtodo 28d ago
  US total fertility rate is at record lows, and continues to decline. Childfree/childless rates are up, and will continue to climb. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11537490/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11537490/ https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5777587/teen-birth-rates-hit-another-historical-low-2025-cdc https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5777587/teen-birth-rate... https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/09/older-mothers.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/09/older-mothers... https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/number-of-americans-who-never-want-to-have-children-has-doubled-research-says https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/number-of-americans-who-... https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/the-demographic-dead-end-2026-state-of-fertility-report https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/the-demographic-dead-end-... https://ifstudies.org/blog/theres-no-mystery-to-americas-fertility-decline https://ifstudies.org/blog/theres-no-mystery-to-americas-fer... https://ifstudies.org/insights?id=3886 https://ifstudies.org/insights?id=3886 https://ifstudies.org/blog/1-in-4-projecting-childlessness-among-todays-young-women https://ifstudies.org/blog/1-in-4-projecting-childlessness-a...
  - rayiner 28d ago
    > Childfree/childless rates are up, and will continue to climb Desired family size is still 2.7 kids, and has been stable at that number for over 50 years: https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-size-remains-above-two-children.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-s... A growing gap between how many kids people want and how many they have militates against copying the dense housing patterns of Asian countries that have the lowest birth rates in the world.
    - toomuchtodo 28d ago
      Desired fertility is like desired Lambos, all that matters is realized fertility. And realized fertility is trending lower globally, as shown by my numerous citations. I’m willing to bet on this if you want, as a demographic scholar. https://ourworldindata.org/which-countries-have-already-passed-peak-population-and-when-will-the-rest-do-so https://ourworldindata.org/which-countries-have-already-pass... https://ourworldindata.org/population-simulation-tool https://ourworldindata.org/population-simulation-tool Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 - August 2026 The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 - August 2025 (400 comments) The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival - https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbea597263a88f27075bd6eb49_17385_suerf.pdf https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe... - SUERF Policy Note, Issue No 197, October 2020 “Talk is cheap, show me the fertility rate.”
rayiner 28d ago
The census definition of “urban area” means nothing. I technically live in an “urban area” according to the census definition, but there’s soybean farms five minutes down the road from me. The same is true for the definition of “childless” people. It counts my parents, who don’t have children living at home, but have my kids coming over to their house multiple times per week. Only 15% of women never have children. Most people arrange their living circumstances with the goal of eventually having kids. And once the kids grow up and leave, most people want to stay in the same area.

Zambyte 29d ago

I'm American, and I don't normally drive, because I use busses, bikes, and trains to get to my destinations. I sold my last (hopefully ever) car over a year ago. I'm sorry to shatter the dreams of most Americans, but the world has finite resources. Buying a car when you're poor is hard, because cars are expensive, because they are extremely resource demanding. Even with all the subsidies drivers receive, they still usually struggle with the cost. By the way, you don't have to look at public transit schedules when your public transit works. I recommend visiting countries outside the US that have functional infrastructure.

rayiner 28d ago
> By the way, you don't have to look at public transit schedules when your public transit works. I recommend visiting countries outside the US that have functional infrastructure. I go to Japan once or twice a year. Even in Japan, many people take regional rail or (gasp!) busses, and those don't run every 5 minutes.
rangestransform 27d ago
> but the world has finite resources we pay our government to point guns at other people, so that resources become their problem and not ours
hollerith 26d ago
You might consider it obvious that the personal car is more resource-demanding than the alternatives, but I don't, particularly in a country with as low a population density as the US.