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> Even if there's just a 1% likelihood This is like me saying "Even if there's just a 1% likelihood of me getting struck by lightning..." You're implying that
by BobaFloutist 23d ago
> Even if there's just a 1% likelihood
This is like me saying "Even if there's just a 1% likelihood of me getting struck by lightning..."
You're implying that 1% likelihood is the floor, because 1 is the lowest natural number and feels like a good default "low percentage", but there's zero justification for putting the floor that high.
Conjuring an unsupported "low" probability and multiplying it by a massive outcome to make it seem significant is one of the most irritating ways people launder their opinions(/gut feelings) through "math".
- Sharlin 23d agoFor the record, I consider that P(dangerously unaligned | AGI from current research) >> 0.01. A more reasonable estimate given, what we know, would be 0.99. With regard to the second probability, P(AGI | current LLM research), it would certainly be overconfidence bordering on arrogance to assign it a value significantly lower than 0.01.
- BobaFloutist 23d agoOnce again, you're writing up nicely formal formulae with zero justification. It's fine to eyeball it and give your gut feeling, but it's disingenuous to present that as probabilistic fact. Edit: Also, you've downgraded your claim from "Extinction event" to "dangerously unaligned"