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Lockheed and Boeing are both very capable of building planes at scale, and in a competitive environment. Currently their space vehicles are built on a cost-plus
by gregpilling 14y ago
Lockheed and Boeing are both very capable of building planes at scale, and in a competitive environment. Currently their space vehicles are built on a cost-plus model, but I think that L-B can adapt. Musk has an advantage today in cost, and should be able to maintain that for a few years, but don't think that Lockheed or Boeing can't compete once they realize that the gravy days are over.
It should be an exciting next decade for space travel. Maybe all the sci-fi I read will start to come true. Getting anything into space is a big challenge and hopefully soon the market will have several private companies competing in a real market for space travel. For a nice short story, look up "The man who sold the moon" by Robert Heinlein. Then we can discuss whether or not Elon Musk is the re-incarnation of the fictional character DD Harriman.
- btilly 14y agoI don't know why you say this. Changing your cost structure is extremely hard for businesses. Particularly if, as with Lockheed and Boeing, your cost structure is distributed through a web of other businesses (ie subcontractors) who are all going to be inclined to push back.
- gregpilling 14y agoWhich particular this are you referring to? Just the changing of cost structure forced upon you by the adapt or die that sometimes happens in the marketplace? or were there other parts that required more explanation on my part.
- btilly 14y agoThat changing of the cost structure exactly. It is much harder than it looks like to do, and is exactly the sort of change that existing industries routinely fail to do, leading to their demise. I believe that in 20 years SpaceX will have serious competition. I'm pretty sure it won't be Boeing or Lockheed-Martin.