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Genuinely curious...the output drop in refining from Russia is not also a large factor in diesel (and other Petro) price hikes? Or are you saying the Ukraine d

by tyingq 23d ago

Genuinely curious...the output drop in refining from Russia is not also a large factor in diesel (and other Petro) price hikes? Or are you saying the Ukraine drone strikes have not affected the output at a scale where it matters globally?

bluGill 23d ago
A lot of the Ukraine strikes affect Russia only. Russia has changed to import a lot more, and exporting less (I do not know the balance - most refining countries both import and export fuel from different locations), but the vast majority of the oil refined in Russia was used in Russia and they are unable to replace it. Ukraine strikes to impact the world price. However most of the impact is in Russia, elsewhere the effect is less. Iran is larger effect because the middle east as a more significant share of global oil. (both have an effect, but Iran is larger)
stefan_ 23d ago
Russia hasn't exported products in over a month now. If Diesel prices hit $6 today, it's purely because 6 months after the US president started his war on Iran, Iranian forces in Yemen have routed the Saudis and cut off the second of two SA oil export routes, damaging a vital pipeline in the process, sending crude to $100 and beyond.
fpoling 23d ago
Russia stopped exporting diesel due to Ukrainian strikes. That badly hurt Turkey and to lesser extent Brazil. And Brazil started to get diesel from US allowing US companies to make a lot of profit. So Ukrainian strikes clearly affect global prices. But then it also makes Chinese EV including trucks extremely attractive replacement. So China making a profit as well.
sleepyguy 23d ago
Check historical prices of diesel. Diesel has been up since April 2026 when Trump launched his war against Iran regardless of what Ukraine has been doing. This is the same story with weapons, the Trump administrations blames Ukraine for their lack of Weapons to fight Iran, if you look at the weapons they are using to fight Iran, 95% of them were never given to Ukraine.

by tyingq 23d ago

bluGill 23d ago

A lot of the Ukraine strikes affect Russia only. Russia has changed to import a lot more, and exporting less (I do not know the balance - most refining countries both import and export fuel from different locations), but the vast majority of the oil refined in Russia was used in Russia and they are unable to replace it. Ukraine strikes to impact the world price. However most of the impact is in Russia, elsewhere the effect is less. Iran is larger effect because the middle east as a more significant share of global oil. (both have an effect, but Iran is larger)

stefan_ 23d ago

Russia hasn't exported products in over a month now. If Diesel prices hit $6 today, it's purely because 6 months after the US president started his war on Iran, Iranian forces in Yemen have routed the Saudis and cut off the second of two SA oil export routes, damaging a vital pipeline in the process, sending crude to $100 and beyond.

fpoling 23d ago

Russia stopped exporting diesel due to Ukrainian strikes. That badly hurt Turkey and to lesser extent Brazil. And Brazil started to get diesel from US allowing US companies to make a lot of profit. So Ukrainian strikes clearly affect global prices. But then it also makes Chinese EV including trucks extremely attractive replacement. So China making a profit as well.

sleepyguy 23d ago

Check historical prices of diesel. Diesel has been up since April 2026 when Trump launched his war against Iran regardless of what Ukraine has been doing. This is the same story with weapons, the Trump administrations blames Ukraine for their lack of Weapons to fight Iran, if you look at the weapons they are using to fight Iran, 95% of them were never given to Ukraine.