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M. Williams, OpenAI: Human extinction in the next few years seems likely

11 points by doener 22d ago

doener 22d ago
Sorry, wrong link: https://xcancel.com/Marcus_J_W/status/2098078076299366684 https://xcancel.com/Marcus_J_W/status/2098078076299366684
deleted 22d ago
[deleted]
plastic-enjoyer 22d ago
[dead]
ChiperSoft 22d ago
Possibly, but more likely because of the ravaging weather events as gas powered data centers churn out more emissions in four years than the last fourty
rvz 22d ago
It is bullsh*t. Just say that you need the IPO money to build yourself a bunker. If it was a true danger, then instead you would have supported pausing AI and an international governing body to halt the development globally (including China) right now. But you didn't. Because someone needs to complete their grift first before dumping shares on retail investors.
- deleted 22d ago
  [deleted]
vlod 22d ago
>Unless there is AI regulation or a coordinated slowdown between labs, human extinction in the next few years seems very likely Sigh, no explanation of how this would occur (even after multiple questions on that thread). It's starting to sound like hot air and frankly tiresome. I want data worksheets.
- Semiapies 21d ago
  AI is the only product where prophesies of doom about it are part of the marketing strategy.
blltprfmnk 22d ago
I think my counter is relatively straightforward. Economists have said that as of more or less today there has been zero impact from AI. Despite layoffs in tech. I don’t think we go from “no economic impact” to end of humanity in “the next few years”.
- sigmarule 22d ago
  Did the economists’ analysis consider variables like AI-spurred layoffs / job displacement also influencing the metrics being considered? I suppose it would be very hard to do as it’s unclear what subset of layoffs were downstream effects of AI, and I’m sure if I, random guy on HN, thought of it, they, actual economists, surely would’ve too. In any case, the economics of a doomsday device are probably quite unique.., though economic impact as a proxy for intelligence and intelligence as proxy for likelihood-of-annihilating for some bands is probably a fair way to approximate here…
- talon8635 22d ago
  Zero impact seems weird. Aren’t employees at major software companies saying they don’t even write code anymore? I personally know people are Google who say this.
  - fingerlocks 21d ago
    Explicitly told we should not be writing code anymore at Microsoft.
    - talon8635 21d ago
      Wow, okay. Yeah that sounds like a pretty major impact lol. And it’s still extremely early days.
  - red-iron-pine 21d ago
    had someone use that exact phrase "I don't even write code anymore" this morning when we were getting coffee dude is a Ph.D in ML and is leading pipeline development efforts in an ML org
talon8635 22d ago
Do any of these people have kids? Honest question, what are average joes supposed to do? We have no control here. This incessant messaging is going to inspire genuine chaos. What are young adults and parents of young kids supposed to do other than panic? We’ve abandoned religion and adopted tech consumerism as our new pseudo religion. Is Kubrick our prophet, and 2001 our prophesy?
- red-iron-pine 21d ago
  how much water purification you have? got any guns? if you needed to GTFO out of wherever you are because it's going to hell, where will you go and how will you get there? if service-jobs vanish tomorrow what can you make or do? I know two guys who quit STEM after COVID to run a coffee shop, and I wonder if they're just ahead of the curve. if you're panicing you've lost. make a plan, you have the time and capacity. hell, AI is still free and could help.
  - talon8635 21d ago
    Can you explain more the coffee shop point? Ahead how? Just by checking out of the discussion and focusing elsewhere? I can’t imagine coffee making is preparing them in any way, so are you just looking at it from a psychological angle?
    - red-iron-pine 15d ago
      AI eats all of the service jobs. whole lot of college boys who are only skilled at computers now need to compete for labor jobs or truck driving gigs. the STEM guys I referred to burnt out hard but had the money, gumpstion, and ties to the community to say fuck it, let's buy out this coffee shop and make it work. I gather it's been a hard go for them -- post-COVID business recovery is rough -- but now they're making it work. meanwhile most of the posters here will be starting back at square one in < 5 years while the coffee shop guys will be opening their second location...
throwatdem12311 22d ago
Unless this happens via nuclear annihilation not a chance. Have these people ever left their bubble? In sane parts of reality barely anything has actually changed except some people are dumber because they use ChatGPT for absolutely everything. Oh and restaurant menus are fugly now.

11 points by doener 22d ago

Sorry, wrong link: https://xcancel.com/Marcus_J_W/status/2098078076299366684 https://xcancel.com/Marcus_J_W/status/2098078076299366684

deleted 22d ago

[deleted]

plastic-enjoyer 22d ago

[dead]

ChiperSoft 22d ago

Possibly, but more likely because of the ravaging weather events as gas powered data centers churn out more emissions in four years than the last fourty

rvz 22d ago

It is bullsh*t. Just say that you need the IPO money to build yourself a bunker. If it was a true danger, then instead you would have supported pausing AI and an international governing body to halt the development globally (including China) right now. But you didn't. Because someone needs to complete their grift first before dumping shares on retail investors.

deleted 22d ago
[deleted]

vlod 22d ago

>Unless there is AI regulation or a coordinated slowdown between labs, human extinction in the next few years seems very likely Sigh, no explanation of how this would occur (even after multiple questions on that thread). It's starting to sound like hot air and frankly tiresome. I want data worksheets.

Semiapies 21d ago
AI is the only product where prophesies of doom about it are part of the marketing strategy.

blltprfmnk 22d ago

I think my counter is relatively straightforward. Economists have said that as of more or less today there has been zero impact from AI. Despite layoffs in tech. I don’t think we go from “no economic impact” to end of humanity in “the next few years”.

sigmarule 22d ago
Did the economists’ analysis consider variables like AI-spurred layoffs / job displacement also influencing the metrics being considered? I suppose it would be very hard to do as it’s unclear what subset of layoffs were downstream effects of AI, and I’m sure if I, random guy on HN, thought of it, they, actual economists, surely would’ve too. In any case, the economics of a doomsday device are probably quite unique.., though economic impact as a proxy for intelligence and intelligence as proxy for likelihood-of-annihilating for some bands is probably a fair way to approximate here…
talon8635 22d ago
Zero impact seems weird. Aren’t employees at major software companies saying they don’t even write code anymore? I personally know people are Google who say this.
- fingerlocks 21d ago
  Explicitly told we should not be writing code anymore at Microsoft.
  - talon8635 21d ago
    Wow, okay. Yeah that sounds like a pretty major impact lol. And it’s still extremely early days.
- red-iron-pine 21d ago
  had someone use that exact phrase "I don't even write code anymore" this morning when we were getting coffee dude is a Ph.D in ML and is leading pipeline development efforts in an ML org

talon8635 22d ago

Do any of these people have kids? Honest question, what are average joes supposed to do? We have no control here. This incessant messaging is going to inspire genuine chaos. What are young adults and parents of young kids supposed to do other than panic? We’ve abandoned religion and adopted tech consumerism as our new pseudo religion. Is Kubrick our prophet, and 2001 our prophesy?

red-iron-pine 21d ago
how much water purification you have? got any guns? if you needed to GTFO out of wherever you are because it's going to hell, where will you go and how will you get there? if service-jobs vanish tomorrow what can you make or do? I know two guys who quit STEM after COVID to run a coffee shop, and I wonder if they're just ahead of the curve. if you're panicing you've lost. make a plan, you have the time and capacity. hell, AI is still free and could help.
- talon8635 21d ago
  Can you explain more the coffee shop point? Ahead how? Just by checking out of the discussion and focusing elsewhere? I can’t imagine coffee making is preparing them in any way, so are you just looking at it from a psychological angle?
  - red-iron-pine 15d ago
    AI eats all of the service jobs. whole lot of college boys who are only skilled at computers now need to compete for labor jobs or truck driving gigs. the STEM guys I referred to burnt out hard but had the money, gumpstion, and ties to the community to say fuck it, let's buy out this coffee shop and make it work. I gather it's been a hard go for them -- post-COVID business recovery is rough -- but now they're making it work. meanwhile most of the posters here will be starting back at square one in < 5 years while the coffee shop guys will be opening their second location...

throwatdem12311 22d ago

Unless this happens via nuclear annihilation not a chance. Have these people ever left their bubble? In sane parts of reality barely anything has actually changed except some people are dumber because they use ChatGPT for absolutely everything. Oh and restaurant menus are fugly now.