When I say "YC startups, on average, do not have a high chance of a $1B exit," I think they do have a significantly higher chance than non-YC startups. However

When I say "YC startups, on average, do not have a high chance of a $1B exit," I think they do have a significantly higher chance than non-YC startups. However the chance is still low. Even at 1/100, a single $1B exit only breaks an investor even by expected value at a $10M valuation, but is quite profitable at a $5M valuation. Of course, investing is more than probability, but probability is a significant factor.