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While true, all crime in the US has dropped significantly in the last 20 years. Many have suggested Roe v Wade had a big impact in this, but I'm not sure it's c

While true, all crime in the US has dropped significantly in the last 20 years. Many have suggested Roe v Wade had a big impact in this, but I'm not sure it's conclusive. From Freakanomics, the theory being that many would be kids in bad situations would have ended up as criminals 18 years later were instead aborted. This has led to a big overall crime drop. Whether it's actually because of this isn't the point though, crime has dropped a lot everywhere, and the violent crime in DC is still much much higher than other places with far less strict gun control. FWIW, the strict gun control in DC started in the late 70's. It may have gotten stricter over time, but I'd say it's a stretch to say that it getting stricter 15 years later was causal to the crime drop.

bane 14y ago
I don't disagree. Like most large socio-economic issues, pointing to one thing is overly simplifying things. Growing up near D.C. I remember being terrified of going into the city. Stray rounds regularly found their ways into people's living rooms, and just a block or two from the national mall, one would have been ill-advised to spend any time. I definitely subscribe to the national trends impacting local crime rates. D.C. today, while not an exceptionally nice place to be, isn't comparable to D.C. of the 1980s and 90s. But there are other things that impacted D.C. w/r to very local issues. For example, I don't think it's a stretch to think that the end of Marion Barry's tenure as "mayor for life" and the reversal of decades of population flight which started around the time of his first term is all a big coincidence. The drop-off of crack-cocaine as a local drug of choice was also a major contributor. The gentrification that followed, while often viewed in negative terms by many, has resulted in a city with large physical areas of relative safety and good maintenance. The only comparable city I'm aware of is New York, which had a similar dangerous reputation, and is now a pretty nice place to be. Gun crime in D.C. was and is significant. In the interest of being mindful that correlation does not equal causation (gun control up and gun violence down in the same period does not mean that one caused the other), I'd probably argue that there's little evidence that gun control in either direction has had the majority impact on D.C. gun crimes, but that external factors that have contributed to improving the city and have had larger impacts.

bane 14y ago

I don't disagree. Like most large socio-economic issues, pointing to one thing is overly simplifying things. Growing up near D.C. I remember being terrified of going into the city. Stray rounds regularly found their ways into people's living rooms, and just a block or two from the national mall, one would have been ill-advised to spend any time. I definitely subscribe to the national trends impacting local crime rates. D.C. today, while not an exceptionally nice place to be, isn't comparable to D.C. of the 1980s and 90s. But there are other things that impacted D.C. w/r to very local issues. For example, I don't think it's a stretch to think that the end of Marion Barry's tenure as "mayor for life" and the reversal of decades of population flight which started around the time of his first term is all a big coincidence. The drop-off of crack-cocaine as a local drug of choice was also a major contributor. The gentrification that followed, while often viewed in negative terms by many, has resulted in a city with large physical areas of relative safety and good maintenance. The only comparable city I'm aware of is New York, which had a similar dangerous reputation, and is now a pretty nice place to be. Gun crime in D.C. was and is significant. In the interest of being mindful that correlation does not equal causation (gun control up and gun violence down in the same period does not mean that one caused the other), I'd probably argue that there's little evidence that gun control in either direction has had the majority impact on D.C. gun crimes, but that external factors that have contributed to improving the city and have had larger impacts.