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This is the "Pilot testimony of UFO sighting" levels of naive. What's more likely? Anthropic is doing some deeply unethical marketing in the lead up to their m
by EA-3167 28d ago
This is the "Pilot testimony of UFO sighting" levels of naive.
What's more likely? Anthropic is doing some deeply unethical marketing in the lead up to their multi-trillion dollar IPO? Or they're inventing a machine god? There's ample evidence of the former because that's their entire business model, but no evidence whatsoever to support the latter claims.
If you want an extreme claim to be taken seriously, provide commensurate evidence.
- x312 28d agoThe proof is that LLMs could barely solve arithmetic 3 years ago, but now surpass the best human mathematicians, and that this has all occurred from simple principles (RL + compute) that will continue to scale up by factors of millions in the coming years. Also, advocating for slowing LLM progress does not benefit Anthropic or OpenAI.
- platinumrad 28d agoThey surpass the best human mathematicians in one specific way: they don't get tired or bored.
- xyzsparetimexyz 28d agoIt won't scale up by factors of millions, that's just obscene hyperbole. Since chatgpt we've probably made things 10x more intelligent on the same hardware. We've also made way more expensive models. Maybe we get a maximum of another 10x efficiency and 5x model size/expense from this point but millions is a joke.
- EA-3167 28d agoHaven't people learned about the peril of assuming, "Line go up" yet?! TRENDS HAVE FEEDBACK
- skybrian 28d agoTrends don't go on forever, but the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. There's no good rule of thumb for this, other than maybe the Lindy effect.
- EA-3167 28d agoI won’t presume to time it, but at this point I think anyone can see what’s coming. It’s precisely because it can’t be timed that a sane person should stand well clear.
- skybrian 28d agoI certainly can't see what's coming. I believe that nobody really knows what's coming. Some people are overconfident.
- fc417fc802 28d ago> There's ample evidence of the former because that's their entire business model Given the economic numbers is it not reasonable to suppose that the latter also underpins their business model?
- deleted 28d ago[deleted]
- par1970 28d agoSo what is your credence that they will build a machine god in the next twenty years?
- stevenhuang 28d agoI wouldn't rule out pilot testimony of UFO sightings, nor the possibility we're indeed developing a machine God. There's ample evidence to support both by now.
- bitwize 28d agoWe know that they're trying to invent a machine god, and if they're even partway successful shit's gonna get real, real fast.