>> the columnist who bought a pregnancy book for a pregnant friend on Amazo > that's really a "bug" This thinking worries me a lot, especially when applied to

>> the columnist who bought a pregnancy book for a pregnant friend on Amazo > that's really a "bug" This thinking worries me a lot, especially when applied to what Google is heading for. So now many people are removing all buttons and settings, because they think that every button or setting is a failure to guess the user's need. The epitome of this move it probably Google Now, and I fear it is going to fail or to stink. My instance of Google Now tries to guess when I will drive back home and notify me with a traffic estimate: Until now, it was successfull and mildly useful once in 20 tries. So in fact, I have been spam-notified 19 times by Google itself! And me driving home has a relatively high predictability, compared to buying books, going out, etc. I just read Thinking Fast and Slow for the second time, and the gist of it, in this context, is that the world is much less predictable than we think it is. If the Bayesian statistical approach or even simple formulas work better than intuition or experts in so many domains (financial, political forecasting, clinical diagnostic, etc), it doesn't mean it should be used, it means these domain have very low prediction validity. For instance, the only valid and proven prediction for next year stock price is "80% chance to be between -10% and +30% of current stock price", and this is useless common sense. Just as the only correct explanation for above the average earnings this year at any company is "below-average results last year produced lower expectations , and we are regressing to the mean". Moreover, if some few things are to be found predictable in my life, I probably would not want to be recalled of this saddening fact. Suppose you are hiking next week-end in the mountain nearby. If a Google Now thingy tells me, two hours before leaving, that I should not forget my socks, it will give me the same feeling as a caring and annoying mother: "Yes Mom, call you there; No Mom, I'll not forget to wash me hands..." Who did like this when a teenager? So, either personal life events are not predictable, or they should not be predicted because most people would rather keep the illusion they are in control. What technology need to do is to empower users with helpful (or funny) tools. When I am treking somewhere in nowhere land, I feel empowered to be able to pull a satellite map and GPS positioning from my phone, and I use it whether I'm a bit lost or I just want to check the road again. But I really really would hate it if the next Google map would detect from my speed that I am hesitating, and pop a "Just turn left after the next oaktree to get back to your car, you sucker". Google's new trend is in parenting its user, I am not sure it is the correct move.