4 ms·

I’m still looking for no-moatists to logically explain why there is no moat in SOTA LLMS. That paper released by a lone Google employee 3 years ago still misgu

I’m still looking for no-moatists to logically explain why there is no moat in SOTA LLMS. That paper released by a lone Google employee 3 years ago still misguiding people it seems.

throwa356262 1mo ago
My reasoning is that we have seen multiple small labs come out of nowhere and create impressive models.
- aurareturn 1mo ago
  Impressive doesn't mean sustainable. We're also seeing behemoths like Google and Meta both fail to keep up with OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft has given up on SOTA training. Loads of once promising LLM training companies are no longer relevant at the SOTA stage such as Cohere, Mistral. I've said this countless times but SOTA LLM market looks like a classic monopoly/duopoly market over time. Each generation requires magnitudes more resources to train and you can only compete if you've made enough money on your previous generation.
  - throwa356262 1mo ago
    On the contrary, small efficient models using recent improvements should be more sustainable than huge frontier models that require billions and years to train
    - aurareturn 1mo ago
      Small efficient models are commodities.
  - r4rf 1mo ago
    "Impressive doesn't mean sustainable." The frontier labs at the current rate are also not sustainable. You make some incredibly stupid assumptions - like assuming revenue growth rate of Anthropic and OAI will continue on. Elon-Musk type stuff. lmfao.
    - aurareturn 1mo ago
      Why is it not sustainable when Anthropic has already had a profitable quarter?
      - philipwhiuk 1mo ago
        It's pretty easy to use accounting wizardry to have one profitable quarter.
        aurareturn 1mo ago
        So what makes their AI business fundamentally unsustainable?
        philipwhiuk 1mo ago
        The obvious draw-down on resources being used by companies following the token price hikes? The fact that in the testimonials both frontier labs quote the same company (who I'm led to believe is still tokenmaxxing). The fact that we've not seen actual productivity benefits or new products resulting from people outside the companies using it and a lot of things that in most businesses would result in a lot of investor skepticism and concern. The fervent development and focus on 'the next big thing'.
Zambyte 1mo ago
The vast majority of people simply don't need SOTA models. I run most of my programming on a single 7900 XTX with Qwen 3.8 27b. I'm more interested in scaling out to run more instances of the model in parallel, than I am in scaling up to better models.

I’m still looking for no-moatists to logically explain why there is no moat in SOTA LLMS. That paper released by a lone Google employee 3 years ago still misguiding people it seems.

throwa356262 1mo ago

My reasoning is that we have seen multiple small labs come out of nowhere and create impressive models.

aurareturn 1mo ago
Impressive doesn't mean sustainable. We're also seeing behemoths like Google and Meta both fail to keep up with OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft has given up on SOTA training. Loads of once promising LLM training companies are no longer relevant at the SOTA stage such as Cohere, Mistral. I've said this countless times but SOTA LLM market looks like a classic monopoly/duopoly market over time. Each generation requires magnitudes more resources to train and you can only compete if you've made enough money on your previous generation.
- throwa356262 1mo ago
  On the contrary, small efficient models using recent improvements should be more sustainable than huge frontier models that require billions and years to train
  - aurareturn 1mo ago
    Small efficient models are commodities.
- r4rf 1mo ago
  "Impressive doesn't mean sustainable." The frontier labs at the current rate are also not sustainable. You make some incredibly stupid assumptions - like assuming revenue growth rate of Anthropic and OAI will continue on. Elon-Musk type stuff. lmfao.
  - aurareturn 1mo ago
    Why is it not sustainable when Anthropic has already had a profitable quarter?
    - philipwhiuk 1mo ago
      It's pretty easy to use accounting wizardry to have one profitable quarter.
      - aurareturn 1mo ago
        So what makes their AI business fundamentally unsustainable?
        philipwhiuk 1mo ago
        The obvious draw-down on resources being used by companies following the token price hikes? The fact that in the testimonials both frontier labs quote the same company (who I'm led to believe is still tokenmaxxing). The fact that we've not seen actual productivity benefits or new products resulting from people outside the companies using it and a lot of things that in most businesses would result in a lot of investor skepticism and concern. The fervent development and focus on 'the next big thing'.

Zambyte 1mo ago

The vast majority of people simply don't need SOTA models. I run most of my programming on a single 7900 XTX with Qwen 3.8 27b. I'm more interested in scaling out to run more instances of the model in parallel, than I am in scaling up to better models.