5 ms·
"Based on this, framework, one model for the per-capita gun death rate D would be D = V * G * k, where V is the average tendency toward violence and G i
by oconnore 14y ago
"Based on this, framework, one model for the per-capita
gun death rate D would be D = V * G * k, where V is the
average tendency toward violence and G is availability
of guns, with killing power k factored in."
Ah yes, the old "write an article based on a model that you made up apparently without validation and then accuse everyone else of not citing evidence".
- pretoriusB 14y agoWell, the Australian cases of drug laws / murders provides enough validation for his case.
- jtc331 14y agoExcept that in both Australia and the UK the gun murder rates were already incredibly low before their respective gun bans. Their bans didn't actually lead to less violence than before their bans; in fact, violence actually increased post-ban.
- lutusp 14y agoThis would only be scientifically defensible if there was another Australia, identical in every respect, with only one thing changed -- the thing being measured.
- mattraibert 14y agoI read it that way at first too. But if you read a little further, the article centers on providing evidence for the model. Specifically he shows evidence that a a state with higher G has linearly higher D (which is exactly what the model states).
- aszepieniec 14y agoAnd then when the evidence does not match up, he fudges with one of his parameters, V, to "explain" it.
- mattraibert 14y agoThis seems like a non-sequitur. The gp's criticism was that the article doesn't cite any evidence for the model, which he does. Besides, he doesn't "fudge" V. He shows evidence: that violent crime decreased over the relevant period and argues that less violent crime implies lower average tendency to violence (V).