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This assumes service industries will remain untouched, which is most certainly not true. Service industries are probably the next industry right after manufactu

This assumes service industries will remain untouched, which is most certainly not true. Service industries are probably the next industry right after manufacturing to be decimated by automation (the time scale is unpredictable, though). For example, a company called Momentum Machines is making a burger-producing machine (http://momentummachines.com/ http://momentummachines.com/) that produces fresher, customizable burgers at a rapid pace. Obviously there are cost issues to be worked out over time, but it's just the tip of the iceberg. EDIT: Reading the website would make clear that this replaces the people who make burgers in fast food restaurants. That's not manufacturing, that's service (in this case, food preparation / cooking).

justincormack 14y ago
Making burgers is manufacturing. There are better examples though.
Someone 14y ago
Better example: automated cars. http://www.truckline.com/About/Industry/Pages/ProfessionalTruckDrivers.aspx http://www.truckline.com/About/Industry/Pages/ProfessionalTr... claims 3.5 million truck drivers in the USA. Add in the zillions of vans distributing stuff to smaller shops and taxi drivers,and one could see a huge impact on employment. Of course, not all of this will go (making deliveries probably will require the presence of a human), but firms will find ways to decrease driver's hours. For example, a truck driver could drive his car to the neighborhood where his truck makes deliveries instead of to the warehouse. More likely, companies would seek part time 'delivery assistants' that live in the neighborhood. As a second example, large multi-truck deliveries would need only one driver for handling the paperwork.
- Joeri 14y ago
  Making deliveries without a human is easy with custom-designed delivery vehicles and ahead of time warning about the exact hour of delivery, combined with personal passwords sent by email that unlock a compartment. People will probably even prefer it that way. I don't see a reason why humans need to be involved in the actual rounds once the driver automation aspect is solved.

justincormack 14y ago

Making burgers is manufacturing. There are better examples though.

Someone 14y ago

Better example: automated cars. http://www.truckline.com/About/Industry/Pages/ProfessionalTruckDrivers.aspx http://www.truckline.com/About/Industry/Pages/ProfessionalTr... claims 3.5 million truck drivers in the USA. Add in the zillions of vans distributing stuff to smaller shops and taxi drivers,and one could see a huge impact on employment. Of course, not all of this will go (making deliveries probably will require the presence of a human), but firms will find ways to decrease driver's hours. For example, a truck driver could drive his car to the neighborhood where his truck makes deliveries instead of to the warehouse. More likely, companies would seek part time 'delivery assistants' that live in the neighborhood. As a second example, large multi-truck deliveries would need only one driver for handling the paperwork.

Joeri 14y ago
Making deliveries without a human is easy with custom-designed delivery vehicles and ahead of time warning about the exact hour of delivery, combined with personal passwords sent by email that unlock a compartment. People will probably even prefer it that way. I don't see a reason why humans need to be involved in the actual rounds once the driver automation aspect is solved.