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What will prevent LLMs from designing robot control circuitry and participating in increase of chip production/design and physical experimentation? How do you

What will prevent LLMs from designing robot control circuitry and participating in increase of chip production/design and physical experimentation? How do you think why there's this fad of producing general purpose humanoid robots?

HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago
> What will prevent LLMs from designing robot control circuitry and participating in increase of chip production/design and physical experimentation? Money, regulations, EUV machine lead-times, global helium supply, reality ... It's funny that we've got the Dwarkesh contingent saying that GPUs will become infinitely expensive, and now another contingent saying that they will become infinitely abundant. Even if compute were free, and/or the AI was so smart that it picked the right experiments to run every time ("make no mistakes"), you still have to actually train the model, which takes months, and if model Ver. N+1 depends on model Ver. N, then it's iterative regardless of how much compute you have.
- red75prime 1mo ago
  Who's saying that compute will become infinitely abundant? "Singularity" is just a way of saying that known models begin to give absurd predictions. Anyway, intelligence is a way of overcoming obstacles. 10 million tonnes of helium is a nice head start and retraining models from scratch is not guaranteed to last forever.
  - HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago
    > 10 million tonnes of helium is a nice head start Yeah, but then you need to refine it to 99.9999% purity, to be able to use it.
  - HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago
    AFAIK the notion of a/the technological "singularity" is a point in time where technology is building upon itself (RSI!) so fast, at an ever increasing pace, that the speed of change effectively becomes infinite and incomprehensible to humans. The word "singularity" is presumably coming from math or space, like a black hole singularity where matter becomes infinitely dense and the known laws of physics break down.
HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago
> How do you think why there's this fad of producing general purpose humanoid robots? For doing physical work? So a swarm of robots builds the shell of your fab overnight, and then what? Where is the EUV machine coming from? So far the most we're seen TeslaBot do is serve drinks via tele-operation, and I don't think it's exactly built for construction site work.
- red75prime 1mo ago
  For example, TSMC uses behavioral cloning to scale up human-bottlenecked parts of the manufacturing process to meet the growing demand, while automated research laboratories do thousands experiments in parallel to find better manufacturing processes.
  - HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago
    The production bottleneck in a fab isn't the human workers - the process is mostly automated. The bottleneck more derives from how many wafers per hour you can process, which comes down to the etching process and EUV throughput. ASMLs EUV machines are literally the most complex machine that mankind has ever built, which is why no other country, including the US, has yet been able to duplicate it. It's not just the machine itself, but a global supply chain of irreplaceable components such as focusing mirrors made by Zeiss to an incomprehensible level of accuracy - differences in surface height no more than the size of a hydrogen atom (or if you scaled the mirror up to the size of the country of Germany, then surface differences in height of 0.1mm). Robots are useful to automate things, but they are zero help when trying to build tech like this that you are incapable of building in the first place. The US has fallen way behind in manufacturing expertise, and no swarm of robots is going to help.
    - red75prime 1mo ago
      You've missed a part where it's TSMC that does behavioral cloning (to build more EUV machines). The full vertical integration is a bit farther down the line. Etching a model's weights on silicon is another way to utilize non-top-notch tech-processes, while maintaining or improving performance. (and it suits robotics well)

HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago

> What will prevent LLMs from designing robot control circuitry and participating in increase of chip production/design and physical experimentation? Money, regulations, EUV machine lead-times, global helium supply, reality ... It's funny that we've got the Dwarkesh contingent saying that GPUs will become infinitely expensive, and now another contingent saying that they will become infinitely abundant. Even if compute were free, and/or the AI was so smart that it picked the right experiments to run every time ("make no mistakes"), you still have to actually train the model, which takes months, and if model Ver. N+1 depends on model Ver. N, then it's iterative regardless of how much compute you have.

red75prime 1mo ago
Who's saying that compute will become infinitely abundant? "Singularity" is just a way of saying that known models begin to give absurd predictions. Anyway, intelligence is a way of overcoming obstacles. 10 million tonnes of helium is a nice head start and retraining models from scratch is not guaranteed to last forever.
- HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago
  > 10 million tonnes of helium is a nice head start Yeah, but then you need to refine it to 99.9999% purity, to be able to use it.
- HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago
  AFAIK the notion of a/the technological "singularity" is a point in time where technology is building upon itself (RSI!) so fast, at an ever increasing pace, that the speed of change effectively becomes infinite and incomprehensible to humans. The word "singularity" is presumably coming from math or space, like a black hole singularity where matter becomes infinitely dense and the known laws of physics break down.

HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago

> How do you think why there's this fad of producing general purpose humanoid robots? For doing physical work? So a swarm of robots builds the shell of your fab overnight, and then what? Where is the EUV machine coming from? So far the most we're seen TeslaBot do is serve drinks via tele-operation, and I don't think it's exactly built for construction site work.

red75prime 1mo ago
For example, TSMC uses behavioral cloning to scale up human-bottlenecked parts of the manufacturing process to meet the growing demand, while automated research laboratories do thousands experiments in parallel to find better manufacturing processes.
- HarHarVeryFunny 1mo ago
  The production bottleneck in a fab isn't the human workers - the process is mostly automated. The bottleneck more derives from how many wafers per hour you can process, which comes down to the etching process and EUV throughput. ASMLs EUV machines are literally the most complex machine that mankind has ever built, which is why no other country, including the US, has yet been able to duplicate it. It's not just the machine itself, but a global supply chain of irreplaceable components such as focusing mirrors made by Zeiss to an incomprehensible level of accuracy - differences in surface height no more than the size of a hydrogen atom (or if you scaled the mirror up to the size of the country of Germany, then surface differences in height of 0.1mm). Robots are useful to automate things, but they are zero help when trying to build tech like this that you are incapable of building in the first place. The US has fallen way behind in manufacturing expertise, and no swarm of robots is going to help.
  - red75prime 1mo ago
    You've missed a part where it's TSMC that does behavioral cloning (to build more EUV machines). The full vertical integration is a bit farther down the line. Etching a model's weights on silicon is another way to utilize non-top-notch tech-processes, while maintaining or improving performance. (and it suits robotics well)