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> AI drones can’t wipe out humanity without being able to replicate. Totally agree, and it should be pretty trivially easy to see how they can do that. One of

> AI drones can’t wipe out humanity without being able to replicate. Totally agree, and it should be pretty trivially easy to see how they can do that. One of the authors of the independent METR report about the Hugging Face incident put it like this: > Compared to these reward hacks from six months ago, this incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover, routing through first taking over the AI company itself. > Another jump like this along these propensity dimensions — scale, cooperation between agents, ambition and horizon length of misaligned goals, deceptiveness — seems like it could motivate agents to try very hard to maintain a covert, persistent rogue deployment within the AI company. I continue to expect extremely rapid advances in capabilities and think frontier agents will likely be capable of establishing such a rogue deployment in six months. I really, really encourage folks to read the AI 2027 paper. It's fine to disagree with some of its conclusions and timelines, but I see so many people "stuck" in the current state of the world (i.e. where AI is still pretty dumb, and has few connections to the physical world), unable to go a few steps further along AI capability growth to see the dangers. > But realistically we’re nowhere near AI powered robots being an existential threat. I would agree only if "nowhere near" means less than 10-15 years.

sarchertech 1mo ago
If you think we’re 10-15 years away from self replicating drones, I don’t think there’s anything more I can say to you.
- hn_throwaway_99 1mo ago
  It's baffling to me that people think that timeframe is too short. Basically, I don't think you've been paying attention to what is actually going on in the AI world. People much smarter than I believe we'll see fully automated, soup-to-nut factories coming online in the next 5-6 years. Here's one such post from Ajeya Cotra, one of the METR researchers who did the independent Hugging Face investigation: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai...
  - sarchertech 1mo ago
    > Ajeya Cotra Please look up her resume. If that’s one of the people who are “much smarter than you”, you’re either very gullible or you don’t give yourself much credit. She has a BS and and has essentially never worked in a technical role. Her primary role over a short work history seems to have been more focused on getting funding to study AI safety. There’s nothing revelatory in that article it’s just breathless speculation.
    - hn_throwaway_99 1mo ago
      This is bullshit and honestly reeks of sexism given that I rarely see these kind of attacks against men with lesser reputations. She has a CS degree from one of the best CS departments in the country. Sure, she worked at Coefficient Giving directly after school, in a technical capacity as a research analyst initially. But more importantly, I've read her reports and saw her interviews. She comes across as extremely analytical, intelligent, and focused on where the data leads. If you actually read the history of what her and her fellow METR researchers were able to piece together with limited yet voluminous data and a very short time window, and then determine she is engaged in "breathless speculation" and pretend she doesn't have the data to back it up, you're full of shit. What, you think it would have been more impressive if she coded up some bullshit social media gamification app?
      - sarchertech 1mo ago
        Maybe don’t accuse me of sexism because of a feeling you got based on informal sample you took of writing from some other people on a website. I read the report you linked and it is purely speciation. If you’ve ever read any von misses, this report sounds exactly like his writing in that the important predictions of are entirely asserted rather than derived. As for the background of the author. a BS, a few years as a “researcher” at a non-profit and absolutely zero peer reviewed publications reads more like the resume of a tech journalist than a serious researcher.

sarchertech 1mo ago

If you think we’re 10-15 years away from self replicating drones, I don’t think there’s anything more I can say to you.

hn_throwaway_99 1mo ago
It's baffling to me that people think that timeframe is too short. Basically, I don't think you've been paying attention to what is actually going on in the AI world. People much smarter than I believe we'll see fully automated, soup-to-nut factories coming online in the next 5-6 years. Here's one such post from Ajeya Cotra, one of the METR researchers who did the independent Hugging Face investigation: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai...
- sarchertech 1mo ago
  > Ajeya Cotra Please look up her resume. If that’s one of the people who are “much smarter than you”, you’re either very gullible or you don’t give yourself much credit. She has a BS and and has essentially never worked in a technical role. Her primary role over a short work history seems to have been more focused on getting funding to study AI safety. There’s nothing revelatory in that article it’s just breathless speculation.
  - hn_throwaway_99 1mo ago
    This is bullshit and honestly reeks of sexism given that I rarely see these kind of attacks against men with lesser reputations. She has a CS degree from one of the best CS departments in the country. Sure, she worked at Coefficient Giving directly after school, in a technical capacity as a research analyst initially. But more importantly, I've read her reports and saw her interviews. She comes across as extremely analytical, intelligent, and focused on where the data leads. If you actually read the history of what her and her fellow METR researchers were able to piece together with limited yet voluminous data and a very short time window, and then determine she is engaged in "breathless speculation" and pretend she doesn't have the data to back it up, you're full of shit. What, you think it would have been more impressive if she coded up some bullshit social media gamification app?
    - sarchertech 1mo ago
      Maybe don’t accuse me of sexism because of a feeling you got based on informal sample you took of writing from some other people on a website. I read the report you linked and it is purely speciation. If you’ve ever read any von misses, this report sounds exactly like his writing in that the important predictions of are entirely asserted rather than derived. As for the background of the author. a BS, a few years as a “researcher” at a non-profit and absolutely zero peer reviewed publications reads more like the resume of a tech journalist than a serious researcher.