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This explains all the things that are happening now and will happen in the performance changes, this is just the beginning. The reduced quality yields more retr
by jimmont 27d ago
This explains all the things that are happening now and will happen in the performance changes, this is just the beginning. The reduced quality yields more retries and use of other models and all the outcomes and products yielding more token use. It's the road show now and metrics must show a trend for liquidity and perceived market performance if they want the exits to work. Anthropic and OpenAI apparently are 48% of Google Cloud revenue alone so if this doesn't work out in the window of time that any liquidity in the markets remains, it doesn't work out so well. And the product performance is just a footnote when the differentiation is shrinking by the week and it's the end of the road that isn't going to make it to where it must go (apparently we're told it's 2028, if that works out I'd love to know why and how). It'll be an interesting 2027, maybe Q4 as well. I don't know any time in history that a massive compute buildout wasn't massively depreciating at year 3 and dominance never lasted much past 10 years—and we appear to be at year 3 now if my read is correct.