3 ms·

The economics to do what planes do today make no sense; but i think that's making the analysis the wrong way around. There are opportunities for which airplane

The economics to do what planes do today make no sense; but i think that's making the analysis the wrong way around. There are opportunities for which airplanes have never made economic sense because they have big fixed costs like pilot, hangar, fuel-infra, engine(-maintenance). So will small short haul (?pilot-less) rechargeable planes have enough allure to beat out alternatives where planes were never considered before? probably not at any major scale in a future where it competes with other autonomous transport, but that's me guessing at numbers. There will be enough of a market to build these things for niche constraints (eg the fuel-infra if small modular reactors become widespread).

bluGill 22d ago
The big problem with autonomous airplanes is they still require airports. I don't have a runway in my backyard, and I can't build one because someone else has a house there. My closest runway is about 20 minutes away, and then once I get to the far airport it is another 20 minutes to get where I'm going. This is why commute by airplane will always be a niche only a few people can do. In turn this means airplanes will never scale to be as cheap as cars are (a new Cesna stationair HD MSRP is over $700k - I submit that if they were building 40 per hour like many SUVs are built the cost would be around $70k) Even a farmer is unlikely to be willing to give up that much space from their farmer operation. I do know farmers who have their own private runways, but they love flying and so are willing to give up some income to have a runway. They are giving up thousands of dollars in gross income to have that runway. I happen to have a backyard that is big enough for a helicopter (I think - I never measured but I think I'm at the minimums the FAA requires), but I have an oversized yard. There are a lot more places for a helicopter. Most local parks have enough space, but I think communities would object to regular use. (if used only a couple times a month no problem, but more that and the noise and need to clear everyone else out will make it an objection)

bluGill 22d ago

The big problem with autonomous airplanes is they still require airports. I don't have a runway in my backyard, and I can't build one because someone else has a house there. My closest runway is about 20 minutes away, and then once I get to the far airport it is another 20 minutes to get where I'm going. This is why commute by airplane will always be a niche only a few people can do. In turn this means airplanes will never scale to be as cheap as cars are (a new Cesna stationair HD MSRP is over $700k - I submit that if they were building 40 per hour like many SUVs are built the cost would be around $70k) Even a farmer is unlikely to be willing to give up that much space from their farmer operation. I do know farmers who have their own private runways, but they love flying and so are willing to give up some income to have a runway. They are giving up thousands of dollars in gross income to have that runway. I happen to have a backyard that is big enough for a helicopter (I think - I never measured but I think I'm at the minimums the FAA requires), but I have an oversized yard. There are a lot more places for a helicopter. Most local parks have enough space, but I think communities would object to regular use. (if used only a couple times a month no problem, but more that and the noise and need to clear everyone else out will make it an objection)