4 ms·
So, I did a quick bit of math. You can pull one piece every hour for two weeks, but sleeping, not playing, missing days etc, meant that I effectively pulled ~10
by orangecat 14y ago
So, I did a quick bit of math. You can pull one piece every hour for two weeks, but sleeping, not playing, missing days etc, meant that I effectively pulled ~100 pieces. The chance of missing a certain piece is 7/8, so missing a certain piece 100 times in a row is (7/8)^100, which is roughly a little bit more than one in a million.
The chance of failure would be 8 times that much because there are 8 pieces you could miss, which comes to about 12.7 per million.
- fmx 14y agoYou couldn't possibly miss all 8 pieces. As soon as you make one attempt you'll get one piece.
- Zakharov 14y agoHenrik's math calculated the chance of missing the "I love you" piece each time. The chance of missing any one other piece each time is the same.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- martincmartin 14y agoYes, but they're not independent. Given that you missed piece X, the probability that any one piece it's piece Y it's 1/7, not 1/8, so the chance of missing both X and Y it's lower than the product of their individual probabilities.
- vacri 14y ago'missing each of 8 pieces individually' is not 'missing a certain piece'.