I hate prediction markets but simultaneously find this a little rich. I think most people have experienced what Michael Chrichton called Gel Mann Amnesia - the

I hate prediction markets but simultaneously find this a little rich. I think most people have experienced what Michael Chrichton called Gel Mann Amnesia - the idea that newspapers feel accurate except about topics you know about. Whenever I read about topics I know about: such as my employer, a political topic I am particular familiar with, etc - the reporting is usually off in what MC called a "wet streets cause rain" kind of way. I haven't seen any accountability for this kind of reporting. If a newspaper wrote that someone was born in 1980 but it was actually 1985 they may correct that but the broader theme of articles being inherently misleading to reality is rampant and I suspect significantly worse than when MC conceptualized this problem. That's to say I am not sure there's a practical standard to which a random times writer is held that kalshi isn't to. If anything I think kalshi is more clearly presented as "a bet" vs "the truth" so I don't understand the meat of the grievance.