Two problems. One, people mean different things by “coding”. Two, it’s diffused slower than folks predicted. But the core prediction was not crazy for “coding

Two problems. One, people mean different things by “coding”. Two, it’s diffused slower than folks predicted. But the core prediction was not crazy for “coding as typing code”, which at most big tech companies is at roughly 100% automation now. If by “coding” you mean the full SDLC then we are not automated yet. I think failing to account for the diffusion delay was an actual prediction error, since that is a property of every technology in history.