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>Predicting things 5 years too early is often as useless as not predicting anything. It's not the predicting that's important to me, it's the assessing. I don

by coldtea 1mo ago

>Predicting things 5 years too early is often as useless as not predicting anything. It's not the predicting that's important to me, it's the assessing. I don't care if it will do X in 2 or 5 years. I do care if something IS "X", and we should correct course to not get the bad outcome associated with X (whenever it might come) or not.

BoiledCabbage 1mo ago
> I don't care if it will do X in 2 or 5 years. Yes, but for should care if it's 2 years vs 50 years. That's why timeline are important for predictions. Anyone can predict lots of things that given enough time will eventually be true. "The sun will burn out", "humans as a species will no longer exist", "the US will collapse". That's useless. But those become meaningful if they will happen within the next three years. It's the reason the saying "the market can be irrational longer than your can stay solvent" has such important meaning.