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> But predictions need to be specific and falsifable. This is only possible when the prediction is outside the system. Inside the system, betting can change o
by dofm 1mo ago
> But predictions need to be specific and falsifable.
This is only possible when the prediction is outside the system.
Inside the system, betting can change outcomes.
- minimaltom 1mo agoYou can have a prediction be specific and falsifable while inside the system, its just then riskier (and less useful). For example, that french dude that bet on a prediction market what the temperature would be, then broke into the weather station at the airport with a hair dryer. The prediction was still specific and falsifable!