4 ms·

> You could have spent all of 5 seconds of searching rather than just assuming[1]. I guarantee this will not ship to you any time soon. The current lead time

> You could have spent all of 5 seconds of searching rather than just assuming[1]. I guarantee this will not ship to you any time soon. The current lead time on these GPUs in measured in years. If you didn't place an order for this a long time ago, it's not coming this year. Being able to add it to an online configurator does not mean anything right now. > 12 months of Claude burning $70k a month is $840k Your math is completely useless with these arbitrary numbers pulled out of the air. If you want to begin calculating payback period you'd need to look at token costs, cost per task, utilization rates, and so on. > The operating cost is so much lower it's paid for itself plus an additional $40k in the first year. You went from paying back in a couple months to paying back in a year but you still haven't even talked about tokens or concurrency. You're also neglecting the fact that hosted tokens are going down in price at a rapid rate. If someone was paying $70K per month in tokens for Opus this month, that same level of compute is going to be much cheaper 12 months from now. > Why does this have you so nasty and defensive? Not nasty or defensive, just tired of these armchair claims that it's easy to go out and buy an 8 X MI355X box from people who obviously have no idea what the hardware lead time is like right now, or who haven't considered the actual math on token costs and payback times. You're still making a lot of claims without a single discussion of cost per task or token.

bel8 2mo ago
It usually boils down to people trying to convince themselves that keeping their macs hot and with very little ram to spare only to get sub 50 tokens per second on a subpar lobotomized (quantized) model is worth it. And I'm not even considering their time spent fiddling, fine tuning configs to adjust for ram, updating/benchmarking models, etc. Which is probably more expensive than the mac so the math is even more wrong.
ux266478 2mo ago
> I guarantee this will not ship to you any time soon. The assumption, the starting point, is that you have a line on the hardware. Asking around, some distributors have a 6 month lead time on Instinct GPUs, which curiously enough is about how long you'll be twiddling your thumbs waiting for the cooling loop to be put in. Yes things take time. > Your math is completely useless with these arbitrary numbers pulled out of the air. Your dismissal is worthless if you can't even be bothered to provide a counter-example. You've not provided a single iota of quantified reasoning beyond my original not accounting for the space used for the context of concurrent users. > If you want to begin calculating payback period you'd need to look at token costs, cost per task, utilization rates, and so on. Now go back and carefully reread my original post. Yes, if you are not actually redlining an LLM for a billing cycle, the capex starts to be way more relevant for this setup. Otherwise, our constraint is time and our unit of measure is $/hr. If you want to compare token cost, it may shock you to learn that Kimi K3 without speculative decode on this setup is slightly under twice as fast as Opus 4.8 max. That's still true when fast is compared with K3 with speculative decode, and now Claude is twice as expensive as a base rate. Oops. We're already burning more money over a period of time, looking at tokens we're screaming even further ahead. > You're also neglecting the fact that hosted tokens are going down in price at a rapid rate. Cool. Call me when Opus 4.8 max is $0.50/million. In 4 years you could have bought the 200 acres of land down the road from your building, started a 5MW solar farm subsidiary that you'll expand over time, and as soon as your connect is up, dropped the opex of the cluster down to its maintenance costs. That subsidiary will pay the loan required to spin it up back irrespective of your primary business. When you own your own shit, you can play your own game, stack your cards deep. Have a little bit of business acumen. Fuck what The Valley is doing, that is an ecosystem fully enslaved by economic nihilism, money isn't grounded there. > Not nasty or defensive, just tired of these armchair claims that it's easy to go out and buy an 8 X MI355X box from people who obviously have no idea what the hardware lead time is like right now This motte-bailey routine is both nasty and defensive, particularly when you keep prosecuting a geist of numeric justification that never arrives. All I've gotten from you is vague dismissals, one borderline irrelevant technical argument, moving goalposts and missing the point. Granted, not as egregiously as other people in this chain thinking we're talking about running 100B models on a Mac, I'll give you credit for that. But this whole time, we're just talking past each other. You make realistic points and I try to bring you back to context, but you have to work with me here too. The point was that these companies are not selling to you below cost, they're not even selling to you at-cost. Just use your head. Venture capital isn't a magic wand. Frontier companies are in the red because they're in non-stop expansion operations at massive scales. Anthropic has an operating profit of half a billion dollars[1]. They are not selling you API usage below cost. [1] - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/08/17/anthropics-groundbreaking-second-quarter-delivers-115b-in-revenue/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/08/17/anthropic...

bel8 2mo ago

It usually boils down to people trying to convince themselves that keeping their macs hot and with very little ram to spare only to get sub 50 tokens per second on a subpar lobotomized (quantized) model is worth it. And I'm not even considering their time spent fiddling, fine tuning configs to adjust for ram, updating/benchmarking models, etc. Which is probably more expensive than the mac so the math is even more wrong.

ux266478 2mo ago

> I guarantee this will not ship to you any time soon. The assumption, the starting point, is that you have a line on the hardware. Asking around, some distributors have a 6 month lead time on Instinct GPUs, which curiously enough is about how long you'll be twiddling your thumbs waiting for the cooling loop to be put in. Yes things take time. > Your math is completely useless with these arbitrary numbers pulled out of the air. Your dismissal is worthless if you can't even be bothered to provide a counter-example. You've not provided a single iota of quantified reasoning beyond my original not accounting for the space used for the context of concurrent users. > If you want to begin calculating payback period you'd need to look at token costs, cost per task, utilization rates, and so on. Now go back and carefully reread my original post. Yes, if you are not actually redlining an LLM for a billing cycle, the capex starts to be way more relevant for this setup. Otherwise, our constraint is time and our unit of measure is $/hr. If you want to compare token cost, it may shock you to learn that Kimi K3 without speculative decode on this setup is slightly under twice as fast as Opus 4.8 max. That's still true when fast is compared with K3 with speculative decode, and now Claude is twice as expensive as a base rate. Oops. We're already burning more money over a period of time, looking at tokens we're screaming even further ahead. > You're also neglecting the fact that hosted tokens are going down in price at a rapid rate. Cool. Call me when Opus 4.8 max is $0.50/million. In 4 years you could have bought the 200 acres of land down the road from your building, started a 5MW solar farm subsidiary that you'll expand over time, and as soon as your connect is up, dropped the opex of the cluster down to its maintenance costs. That subsidiary will pay the loan required to spin it up back irrespective of your primary business. When you own your own shit, you can play your own game, stack your cards deep. Have a little bit of business acumen. Fuck what The Valley is doing, that is an ecosystem fully enslaved by economic nihilism, money isn't grounded there. > Not nasty or defensive, just tired of these armchair claims that it's easy to go out and buy an 8 X MI355X box from people who obviously have no idea what the hardware lead time is like right now This motte-bailey routine is both nasty and defensive, particularly when you keep prosecuting a geist of numeric justification that never arrives. All I've gotten from you is vague dismissals, one borderline irrelevant technical argument, moving goalposts and missing the point. Granted, not as egregiously as other people in this chain thinking we're talking about running 100B models on a Mac, I'll give you credit for that. But this whole time, we're just talking past each other. You make realistic points and I try to bring you back to context, but you have to work with me here too. The point was that these companies are not selling to you below cost, they're not even selling to you at-cost. Just use your head. Venture capital isn't a magic wand. Frontier companies are in the red because they're in non-stop expansion operations at massive scales. Anthropic has an operating profit of half a billion dollars[1]. They are not selling you API usage below cost. [1] - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/08/17/anthropics-groundbreaking-second-quarter-delivers-115b-in-revenue/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/08/17/anthropic...