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So does everyone else, including prominent AI enthusiasts and tech CEOs. And most of those predictions are wrong, because predictions are really hard.
by emp17344 1mo ago
So does everyone else, including prominent AI enthusiasts and tech CEOs. And most of those predictions are wrong, because predictions are really hard.
- hgoel 1mo agoAnd we're used to insulting and making fun of the prominent members of those circles too, see: "Scam Altman", the large variety of jokes about Musk's timelines, comments about Dario waking up in a cold sweat whenever a powerful new open weight model drops, the "AGI achieved" meme etc.
- jakeydus 1mo agoHyperbolic as those descriptions are, it’s not like they’re not sourced from reality. Sam Altman’s reputation in SV is well-established; Musk promised the roadster what, a decade ago? These guys preach a promised land of milk and honey and so many hear lap it up like dogs.
- s1artibartfast 1mo agoBoth can be bad, and I think people take issue with intentionally projecting false or irresponsible confidence (lying). Zitron twists and misreports a lot of facts where they should know better. CEO hypemen knowingly conflate Ambitions for certainty
- jen729w 1mo agoBut this doesn't excuse Ed making a living from awful predictions, surely? If you realise you're bad at something it seems immoral to keep charging people for it.
- noobermin 1mo agoSo Altman and Amodei should retire?
- qnpnpmqppnp 1mo agoAltman and Amodei do not make a living out of that. They make a living out of being CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic. Whether they are doing well in this position is a different question, but that has little to do with their public predictions.
- aoshifo 1mo agoWhat? The only reason their companies make so much money is BECAUSE they make their predictions about AI replacing every job soon. A couple months ago it seemed is was their ONLY job.
- skinfaxi 1mo agoThe only reason Anthropic and OpenAI make money is by saying AI will replace workers? Not from selling access to their models?
- snowwrestler 1mo agoNeither company is remotely close to making a profit yet. To the extent people at those companies make money, it is unrealized capital appreciation driven by successively higher valuations during successive funding rounds. In short, financially they are still running on hype. Quite a lot of operations are being paid out of capital, not revenues. So they have to keep selling a dream to keep raising capital. Next stop: IPO.
- aoshifo 29d agoHow do you think they convince people, esp. CEOs to buy access to their models?
- queenkjuul 29d agoNah they do, Sam does nothing but lie in an effort to keep up share price. Selling people an impossible future is the job of OpenAI CEO. If tokens were profitable it'd be selling tokens, but they aren't so the only other option is selling ridiculous predictions to investors
- mvdtnz 1mo agoI ask again, have you ever heard Zitron speak? The way he presents himself has absolutely nothing in common with any tech CEO or AI enthusiast I have ever seen.
- akoboldfrying 1mo agoThe difference is that Altman and Amodei are doing something else besides making predictions that turn out to be wrong. Most obviously, they're running tech companies that are changing the way entire industries operate. We put a lot of weight on that in evaluating them. What else is Zitron doing that he could be evaluated on, besides making predictions that turn out to be wrong?
- randallsquared 1mo agoPredictions being hard is what makes them valuable as a check on insight and accuracy!
- emp17344 1mo agoOk, but it also means we shouldn’t immediately discredit people who make incorrect short-term predictions, because those are really hard and no individual person consistently gets them right. You can worship at the altar of short-term prediction if you really want, but if you want to be logically consistent, that entails never taking anybody seriously ever.