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Most notably Paul Krugman Nobel winning economist in 98: "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than
by _superposition_ 1mo ago
Most notably Paul Krugman Nobel winning economist in 98:
"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s."
Predicting the future is hard.
- voncheese 1mo agoHadn't seen this quote before, amazing. Also goes to show how hard it is to predict anything that is a massive change - these levels of changes are so infrequent that we can't rely on priors to predict the future.
- tyg13 1mo agopretty sure Krugman himself said his prediction was intentionally pessimistic to counter the hyper-optimism of his peers. and in fairness, he wrote that at the height of the dot-com bubble. actually, thinking about it more, I wonder if we'll see something similar with LLMs where, the bubble will eventually pop, but the technology won't disappear, and we'll see it quietly improve and integrate further into our lives over time. probably not that wild of a prediction to make, but I do wonder still
- megagpt1 1mo agoWhat will be LLMs' social media?
- setopt 1mo agoMore or less the same as social media but for agents, perhaps? When I want to book an airline ticket in the future, I expect my LLM agent to contact the airline LLM agent, and the two to discuss options and negotiate a deal on my behalf.
- _superposition_ 1mo agoNegotiate? For an airline ticket? When's the last time a human did that and why would an agent? There's a price, and if you don't like it you go to a competitor you don't call customer service and negotiate? Who in their right mind would let an LLM set prices?