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The trouble with this is that nobody else was making predictions about AI pre-transformers. Not many are making predictions about AI even now. Forecasting is
by deepwoods 1mo ago
The trouble with this is that nobody else was making predictions about AI pre-transformers. Not many are making predictions about AI even now. Forecasting is a preoccupation of the rationalist crowd, and very few people gave much thought to AI before transformers. So the fact that they guessed right about certain things doesn't necessarily mean that the rest of their worldview is sound. A well-informed person who was inclined to making predictions about the future may have drawn similar conclusions without the sci-fi baggage.
- killerstorm 1mo agoWhat "sci-fi baggage"? "Intelligence explosion" was first described by I.J. Good, a mathematician. von Neumann described singularity as a result of accelerating technical progress. He's also a mathematician, not a sci-fi author, although he was a participant in a sci-fi-like plot of secret project building a bomb more powerful than any chemical bomb...
- pixl97 1mo ago>nobody else was making predictions about AI pre-transformers. uh, wtf are you talking about? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_safety #History