4 ms·

Lots of people want lots of things. Can they within the light cone of their existence? That's pretty deep. I guess I think that they will work hard for more an

Lots of people want lots of things. Can they within the light cone of their existence? That's pretty deep. I guess I think that they will work hard for more and thus expect economic growth. Especially with decreasing energy costs. If you want to bet that people will mostly choose to immiserate themselves, go ahead.

toomuchtodo 1mo ago
Lots of people work hard without material change to their economic situation. I deeply respect hard work, but also know most economic success is luck. Most people aren’t lucky, and that’s unfortunate, as life is inherently unfair. There are tens of millions of college educated unemployed youths across Europe, China (“lie flat” and “let it rot” movements), and India (“cockroach party”) that may never have opportunities and their life trajectory is permanently impaired, for example. ~2 million out of ~4 million total US college graduates every year are in jobs that don’t require a degree credential. Is this their fault? No, they had no choice in being born into this system and existence, and are now stuck here until some point in the future. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49378010 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49378010 (citations) Nearly 1/4 dealing with long-term unemployment call it quits on biopharma job searches - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49493220 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49493220 - August 2026 CBS News: What is "functional unemployment" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y2gKIGFTns https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y2gKIGFTns - August 25th, 2026 Nearly 25% of U.S. workers are "functionally unemployed," economic analysis finds - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/functional-unemployment-us-labor-market-analysis/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/functional-unemployment-us-labo... - August 24th, 2026 Record graduate influx lifts China’s youth jobless rate to 17.9% in July 2026 - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3364538/record-graduate-influx-lifts-chinas-youth-jobless-rate-179-july https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3364538/r... - August 19th, 2026 ("China’s youth jobless rate climbed to 17.9 per cent in July, as a record wave of university graduates enters an already crowded labour market, prompting Beijing to step up employment support. The jobless rate for those aged 16 to 24, excluding students, rose 3 percentage points from 14.9 per cent in June – the last of three straight months of contraction – according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. The rate last July was 17.8 per cent and it then climbed to 18.9 per cent the following month – the highest level since Beijing revised its methodology to exclude students in December 2023") India's young are more educated than ever. So why are so many jobless? - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c17841zez8wo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c17841zez8wo | https://archive.today/sitRv https://archive.today/sitRv - March 19th, 2026 ("Start with the headline number: 367 million young people between the ages of 15 and 29 - the largest youth population in the world, and making up a third of India's working-age population. Of them, 263 million are not in education and constitute the potential workforce.") State of Working India 2026 - https://azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/media/resources/SWI/SWI-2026/Executive-Summary_SWI2026-16-March.pdf https://azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/media/resources/SWI/SWI-... ("Nearly 40% of graduates aged 15-25 - and 20% of those aged 25-29 - are jobless, far higher than among the less educated, the report finds. Only a small share secure stable, salaried jobs within a year.") India's youth-led 'cockroach' protests expose cracks in Modi's government - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/indias-youth-led-cockroach-protests-expose-cracks-in-modis-government https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/indias-youth-led-cockroach... - July 27th, 2026 Where do graduates struggle the most to find a job [in Europe]? - https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/where-does-university-degree-biggest-073226108.html https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/where-does-univer... - July 1st, 2026 Most Americans don't earn enough to afford basic costs of living, analysis finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 - May 2025 (Report: https://www.lisep.org/mql https://www.lisep.org/mql) ‘Lying flat’ is no more: new evolution of disillusionment has frustrated Chinese youths ‘letting it rot’ - https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3194180/lying-flat-no-more-new-evolution-disillusionment https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/arti... - October 4th, 2022 We model and predict based off of trajectories, facts, data, evidence, outcomes, and reality, not hope and effort. Happiness is reality minus expectations. I am a realist and rationalist. TLDR Path dependency at scale. Some will be lucky, most will not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Path_dependence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Path_dependence

toomuchtodo 1mo ago

Lots of people work hard without material change to their economic situation. I deeply respect hard work, but also know most economic success is luck. Most people aren’t lucky, and that’s unfortunate, as life is inherently unfair. There are tens of millions of college educated unemployed youths across Europe, China (“lie flat” and “let it rot” movements), and India (“cockroach party”) that may never have opportunities and their life trajectory is permanently impaired, for example. ~2 million out of ~4 million total US college graduates every year are in jobs that don’t require a degree credential. Is this their fault? No, they had no choice in being born into this system and existence, and are now stuck here until some point in the future. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49378010 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49378010 (citations) Nearly 1/4 dealing with long-term unemployment call it quits on biopharma job searches - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49493220 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49493220 - August 2026 CBS News: What is "functional unemployment" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y2gKIGFTns https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y2gKIGFTns - August 25th, 2026 Nearly 25% of U.S. workers are "functionally unemployed," economic analysis finds - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/functional-unemployment-us-labor-market-analysis/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/functional-unemployment-us-labo... - August 24th, 2026 Record graduate influx lifts China’s youth jobless rate to 17.9% in July 2026 - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3364538/record-graduate-influx-lifts-chinas-youth-jobless-rate-179-july https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3364538/r... - August 19th, 2026 ("China’s youth jobless rate climbed to 17.9 per cent in July, as a record wave of university graduates enters an already crowded labour market, prompting Beijing to step up employment support. The jobless rate for those aged 16 to 24, excluding students, rose 3 percentage points from 14.9 per cent in June – the last of three straight months of contraction – according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. The rate last July was 17.8 per cent and it then climbed to 18.9 per cent the following month – the highest level since Beijing revised its methodology to exclude students in December 2023") India's young are more educated than ever. So why are so many jobless? - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c17841zez8wo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c17841zez8wo | https://archive.today/sitRv https://archive.today/sitRv - March 19th, 2026 ("Start with the headline number: 367 million young people between the ages of 15 and 29 - the largest youth population in the world, and making up a third of India's working-age population. Of them, 263 million are not in education and constitute the potential workforce.") State of Working India 2026 - https://azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/media/resources/SWI/SWI-2026/Executive-Summary_SWI2026-16-March.pdf https://azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/media/resources/SWI/SWI-... ("Nearly 40% of graduates aged 15-25 - and 20% of those aged 25-29 - are jobless, far higher than among the less educated, the report finds. Only a small share secure stable, salaried jobs within a year.") India's youth-led 'cockroach' protests expose cracks in Modi's government - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/indias-youth-led-cockroach-protests-expose-cracks-in-modis-government https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/indias-youth-led-cockroach... - July 27th, 2026 Where do graduates struggle the most to find a job [in Europe]? - https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/where-does-university-degree-biggest-073226108.html https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/where-does-univer... - July 1st, 2026 Most Americans don't earn enough to afford basic costs of living, analysis finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 - May 2025 (Report: https://www.lisep.org/mql https://www.lisep.org/mql) ‘Lying flat’ is no more: new evolution of disillusionment has frustrated Chinese youths ‘letting it rot’ - https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3194180/lying-flat-no-more-new-evolution-disillusionment https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/arti... - October 4th, 2022 We model and predict based off of trajectories, facts, data, evidence, outcomes, and reality, not hope and effort. Happiness is reality minus expectations. I am a realist and rationalist. TLDR Path dependency at scale. Some will be lucky, most will not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Path_dependence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Path_dependence