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I don't think you can equate Kalshi style "prediction market" with gambling in Vegas. The worst thing that can happen in Vegas is you the gambler go bankrupt. I
by pibaker 1mo ago
I don't think you can equate Kalshi style "prediction market" with gambling in Vegas. The worst thing that can happen in Vegas is you the gambler go bankrupt. In the meantime we already have reports of war intelligence in Ukraine being distorted so someone who betted on frontline movements can pocket some cash. Losing a war because some rich degenerate is trying to bet his way towards a second Ferrari is less unlikely than you imagined.
- dghlsakjg 1mo agoThe reports that were altered were public reports at the ISW from open reporting, not government intelligence. If you lose a war because you based your tactics and strategy off of media reports instead of your own intel, you weren't going to win that war anyway. That said, I recognize the broader point. Betting on everything, especially things that betters can directly influence is incredibly dangerous.
- inigyou 1mo agoSomeone blew a hair dryer at a weather station at Paris CdG airport to win a bet.
- quickthrowman 1mo agoFarmers in the US were tampering with official USDA rain gauges used to quantify precipitation for crop insurance payouts, all you need to encourage this sort of behavior is a financial incentive and lax security. https://www.agweb.com/news/business/rain-robbers-how-four-farmers-faked-drought-and-stole-millions-crop-insurance https://www.agweb.com/news/business/rain-robbers-how-four-fa...