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In every good market crash, there's a flash point. In 2008, it was the Lehman Bros collapse and congress refusing the initial bailout. This might be the flashpo
by panny 29d ago
In every good market crash, there's a flash point. In 2008, it was the Lehman Bros collapse and congress refusing the initial bailout. This might be the flashpoint, 75 data centers blocked this year and a supermajority of Americans against their construction.
- jdm2212 29d agoWhy would this cause a market crash? A supply crunch in AI will push prices up.
- forshaper 29d agoCuriously, Richard Fuld, who was the CEO/chairman of Lehman Brothers, now invests in datacenters.
- jdm2212 29d agoHim and literally everyone else with investable money.
- digdugdirk 29d agoSo much of the current bubble is predicated on the hype train continuing on its current trajectory. If anything lags behind, the bubble deflates. For one potential path - Less datacenter construction means less GPUs, so less $$$ for Nvidia, which means less for them to spread around to prop up the LLM industrial complex, which means lower valuations, which means OpenAI and Anthropic can't get their trillion dollar valuations, which means VC's race for the exit to cash out, etc, etc.
- jdm2212 29d agoWhat specifically is the bubble you're talking about? Like which asset is seeing a runaway increase in valuation detached from fundamental value?
- tobinfekkes 29d ago... All of it? Does a bubble need to be confined to one vertical? It seems like The Bubble is just the sum of a bunch of other individual bubbles.
- jdm2212 29d agoA bubble is a debt-fueled run-up in asset prices driven by over-optimistic projections of future fundamental value. The housing bubble was people borrowing money (debt-fueled) to buy ever more expensive houses (rising asset prices) on the assumption home values would always keep going up (projection of future value). '90s tech bubble was similar. Where are you seeing that now? Which asset is over-valued?
- adammarples 29d agoSpacex for one. An AI company they say.
- cdrnsf 29d agoTheir debt load and infrastructure costs compared to their relatively meager earnings and widespread public distrust is concerning, no?
- jdm2212 29d agoWho is "they"? NVIDIA? Google? Anthropic?
- cdrnsf 29d agoOpenAI, Anthropic, Google selling equity for the first time since their IPO, all of the downstream consumers of the frontier labs. NVIDIA is perhaps the only one profiting from actually selling something. Who hits a liquidity event before the house of cards blows over?
- 29d ago
- theandrewbailey 29d agoHere I was thinking it will be somewhere between next-generation Nvidia chips, and inability to get ROI before the end of relatively quick GPU depreciation schedules.
- skybrian 29d agoIf stopped before construction, the organizations funding the data centers still have the investment funds and can build in a different location or, worst case, give the money back to investors. Assuming demand keeps up, owners of already-existing data centers continue to get windfall profits. It would be like what happens when housing prices go up due to lack of supply.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 29d agoStopped in an election year. I suspect some politicians may change their minds come December.
- tencentshill 29d agoPeople don't want them stopped entirely, they just want some kind of reasonable tradeoff or restrictions. The current government just doesn't care or listen at all. Just say "we hear you, here's what we are doing about your concerns" instead of silence or "fuck you, deal with it".