3 ms·

Data centers' 'oh s–t' moment

32 points by cdrnsf 1mo ago

panny 1mo ago
In every good market crash, there's a flash point. In 2008, it was the Lehman Bros collapse and congress refusing the initial bailout. This might be the flashpoint, 75 data centers blocked this year and a supermajority of Americans against their construction.
- jdm2212 1mo ago
  Why would this cause a market crash? A supply crunch in AI will push prices up.
  - forshaper 1mo ago
    Curiously, Richard Fuld, who was the CEO/chairman of Lehman Brothers, now invests in datacenters.
    - jdm2212 1mo ago
      Him and literally everyone else with investable money.
  - digdugdirk 1mo ago
    So much of the current bubble is predicated on the hype train continuing on its current trajectory. If anything lags behind, the bubble deflates. For one potential path - Less datacenter construction means less GPUs, so less $$$ for Nvidia, which means less for them to spread around to prop up the LLM industrial complex, which means lower valuations, which means OpenAI and Anthropic can't get their trillion dollar valuations, which means VC's race for the exit to cash out, etc, etc.
    - jdm2212 1mo ago
      What specifically is the bubble you're talking about? Like which asset is seeing a runaway increase in valuation detached from fundamental value?
      - tobinfekkes 1mo ago
        ... All of it? Does a bubble need to be confined to one vertical? It seems like The Bubble is just the sum of a bunch of other individual bubbles.
        jdm2212 1mo ago
        A bubble is a debt-fueled run-up in asset prices driven by over-optimistic projections of future fundamental value. The housing bubble was people borrowing money (debt-fueled) to buy ever more expensive houses (rising asset prices) on the assumption home values would always keep going up (projection of future value). '90s tech bubble was similar. Where are you seeing that now? Which asset is over-valued?
        adammarples 1mo ago
        Spacex for one. An AI company they say.
      - cdrnsf 1mo ago
        Their debt load and infrastructure costs compared to their relatively meager earnings and widespread public distrust is concerning, no?
        jdm2212 1mo ago
        Who is "they"? NVIDIA? Google? Anthropic?
        cdrnsf 1mo ago
        OpenAI, Anthropic, Google selling equity for the first time since their IPO, all of the downstream consumers of the frontier labs. NVIDIA is perhaps the only one profiting from actually selling something. Who hits a liquidity event before the house of cards blows over?
- theandrewbailey 1mo ago
  Here I was thinking it will be somewhere between next-generation Nvidia chips, and inability to get ROI before the end of relatively quick GPU depreciation schedules.
- skybrian 1mo ago
  If stopped before construction, the organizations funding the data centers still have the investment funds and can build in a different location or, worst case, give the money back to investors. Assuming demand keeps up, owners of already-existing data centers continue to get windfall profits. It would be like what happens when housing prices go up due to lack of supply.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 1mo ago
  Stopped in an election year. I suspect some politicians may change their minds come December.
- tencentshill 1mo ago
  People don't want them stopped entirely, they just want some kind of reasonable tradeoff or restrictions. The current government just doesn't care or listen at all. Just say "we hear you, here's what we are doing about your concerns" instead of silence or "fuck you, deal with it".
xg15 1mo ago
> Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is positioning himself as a positive voice on AI Given Meta's (and also Mark's) reputation, I wonder how much that is helping the cause and how much its opponents...
skybrian 1mo ago
Carbon taxes are a tough sell, but I bet a carbon tax specifically on data centers would pass.
JohnMakin 1mo ago
It's been amazing to watch how tone-deaf these AI "thought leaders" and CEO's have been during this hype cycle. "look, we made this thing that's going to put everyone out of work, or destroy 99% of the planet except those of us who have built bunkers, leveraged a massive bet on the entire economy over it, if we're wrong we get bailed out by YOU, and guess what, it's coming to a neighborhood near you!" and they are surprised at the backlash or that people are tossing molotovs at them? It's just crazy to me the kind of bubble one must live in to not see this coming from a mile away.
- dzhiurgis 1mo ago
  Cosmetics market is roughly the size of data centers. Doesn’t seem to be destroying the planet despite using comparable amount of water and orders of magnitude more chemicals.
  - JohnMakin 1mo ago
    Other than this being a poor comparison, I’m not stating I actually believe this is true, but sam altman, dario, many other tech execs have repeatedly stated they believe a hyper intelligent AI is a threat to all of humanity. The tone deafness to it is saying that and then following it up with, “let’s now put trillions in investment to it in your backyard.” Whether or not you believe they are being genuine or this is true is irrelevant. Either a) they’re full of shit, so why should I believe you have my best interests in mind when you build this big datacenter, or b) you’re not full of shit, and also why should I believe you have my best interests in mind when you’re building the thing you’re saying will end us all, and especially people like me?
- rcxdude 1mo ago
  I dunno, I think it's mainly because people don't like them, and that's mainly about the first point and the general perception of inequality in the economy. It's a bit hard to argue against that, regardless of how strong your position is. (IMO the environmental impact of datacenters has been pretty overblown. Water usage is a concern in some places for some datacenters but it's really not a big issue for most of them, the main thing that has some merit on a larger scale is the electricity demand, but the concerns are largely around very optimistic projections of growth of datacenters, not how much they are using today)
aaron695 1mo ago
[dead]
justinsaccount 1mo ago
I think a lot of people out there are being manipulated about things that they don't understand. I saw some comments from people against a proposed data center at the site of an old power plant. I pointed out that it was a mile from anything. Someone replied saying that that was still too close, and that they wouldn't want to live 50 miles from a data center. We are 20 miles from Ashburn.
paradox242 1mo ago
The tech oligarchs and their boosters are doing more to radicalize the US populace than Bernie or AOC ever could. The mask has been slipping for a while, but a combination of Trump getting elected and AI psychosis has lead to a lot of premature celebration over their belief in being the new masters of the permanent underclass. Now the the mask is completely off and revealed them for the disgusting reptiles they have always been.

32 points by cdrnsf 1mo ago

panny 1mo ago

In every good market crash, there's a flash point. In 2008, it was the Lehman Bros collapse and congress refusing the initial bailout. This might be the flashpoint, 75 data centers blocked this year and a supermajority of Americans against their construction.

jdm2212 1mo ago
Why would this cause a market crash? A supply crunch in AI will push prices up.
- forshaper 1mo ago
  Curiously, Richard Fuld, who was the CEO/chairman of Lehman Brothers, now invests in datacenters.
  - jdm2212 1mo ago
    Him and literally everyone else with investable money.
- digdugdirk 1mo ago
  So much of the current bubble is predicated on the hype train continuing on its current trajectory. If anything lags behind, the bubble deflates. For one potential path - Less datacenter construction means less GPUs, so less $$$ for Nvidia, which means less for them to spread around to prop up the LLM industrial complex, which means lower valuations, which means OpenAI and Anthropic can't get their trillion dollar valuations, which means VC's race for the exit to cash out, etc, etc.
  - jdm2212 1mo ago
    What specifically is the bubble you're talking about? Like which asset is seeing a runaway increase in valuation detached from fundamental value?
    - tobinfekkes 1mo ago
      ... All of it? Does a bubble need to be confined to one vertical? It seems like The Bubble is just the sum of a bunch of other individual bubbles.
      - jdm2212 1mo ago
        A bubble is a debt-fueled run-up in asset prices driven by over-optimistic projections of future fundamental value. The housing bubble was people borrowing money (debt-fueled) to buy ever more expensive houses (rising asset prices) on the assumption home values would always keep going up (projection of future value). '90s tech bubble was similar. Where are you seeing that now? Which asset is over-valued?
        adammarples 1mo ago
        Spacex for one. An AI company they say.
    - cdrnsf 1mo ago
      Their debt load and infrastructure costs compared to their relatively meager earnings and widespread public distrust is concerning, no?
      - jdm2212 1mo ago
        Who is "they"? NVIDIA? Google? Anthropic?
        cdrnsf 1mo ago
        OpenAI, Anthropic, Google selling equity for the first time since their IPO, all of the downstream consumers of the frontier labs. NVIDIA is perhaps the only one profiting from actually selling something. Who hits a liquidity event before the house of cards blows over?
theandrewbailey 1mo ago
Here I was thinking it will be somewhere between next-generation Nvidia chips, and inability to get ROI before the end of relatively quick GPU depreciation schedules.
skybrian 1mo ago
If stopped before construction, the organizations funding the data centers still have the investment funds and can build in a different location or, worst case, give the money back to investors. Assuming demand keeps up, owners of already-existing data centers continue to get windfall profits. It would be like what happens when housing prices go up due to lack of supply.
0cf8612b2e1e 1mo ago
Stopped in an election year. I suspect some politicians may change their minds come December.
tencentshill 1mo ago
People don't want them stopped entirely, they just want some kind of reasonable tradeoff or restrictions. The current government just doesn't care or listen at all. Just say "we hear you, here's what we are doing about your concerns" instead of silence or "fuck you, deal with it".

xg15 1mo ago

> Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is positioning himself as a positive voice on AI Given Meta's (and also Mark's) reputation, I wonder how much that is helping the cause and how much its opponents...

skybrian 1mo ago

Carbon taxes are a tough sell, but I bet a carbon tax specifically on data centers would pass.

JohnMakin 1mo ago

It's been amazing to watch how tone-deaf these AI "thought leaders" and CEO's have been during this hype cycle. "look, we made this thing that's going to put everyone out of work, or destroy 99% of the planet except those of us who have built bunkers, leveraged a massive bet on the entire economy over it, if we're wrong we get bailed out by YOU, and guess what, it's coming to a neighborhood near you!" and they are surprised at the backlash or that people are tossing molotovs at them? It's just crazy to me the kind of bubble one must live in to not see this coming from a mile away.

dzhiurgis 1mo ago
Cosmetics market is roughly the size of data centers. Doesn’t seem to be destroying the planet despite using comparable amount of water and orders of magnitude more chemicals.
- JohnMakin 1mo ago
  Other than this being a poor comparison, I’m not stating I actually believe this is true, but sam altman, dario, many other tech execs have repeatedly stated they believe a hyper intelligent AI is a threat to all of humanity. The tone deafness to it is saying that and then following it up with, “let’s now put trillions in investment to it in your backyard.” Whether or not you believe they are being genuine or this is true is irrelevant. Either a) they’re full of shit, so why should I believe you have my best interests in mind when you build this big datacenter, or b) you’re not full of shit, and also why should I believe you have my best interests in mind when you’re building the thing you’re saying will end us all, and especially people like me?
rcxdude 1mo ago
I dunno, I think it's mainly because people don't like them, and that's mainly about the first point and the general perception of inequality in the economy. It's a bit hard to argue against that, regardless of how strong your position is. (IMO the environmental impact of datacenters has been pretty overblown. Water usage is a concern in some places for some datacenters but it's really not a big issue for most of them, the main thing that has some merit on a larger scale is the electricity demand, but the concerns are largely around very optimistic projections of growth of datacenters, not how much they are using today)

aaron695 1mo ago

[dead]

justinsaccount 1mo ago

I think a lot of people out there are being manipulated about things that they don't understand. I saw some comments from people against a proposed data center at the site of an old power plant. I pointed out that it was a mile from anything. Someone replied saying that that was still too close, and that they wouldn't want to live 50 miles from a data center. We are 20 miles from Ashburn.

paradox242 1mo ago

The tech oligarchs and their boosters are doing more to radicalize the US populace than Bernie or AOC ever could. The mask has been slipping for a while, but a combination of Trump getting elected and AI psychosis has lead to a lot of premature celebration over their belief in being the new masters of the permanent underclass. Now the the mask is completely off and revealed them for the disgusting reptiles they have always been.