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This is false or misleading. According to this [1] data which uses actual subscriptions instead of households, it seems the number is around 8-10million LLM su

This is false or misleading. According to this [1] data which uses actual subscriptions instead of households, it seems the number is around 8-10million LLM subscribers in USA. This was March so I expect the figures to be around 40% higher now. Another proxy: OpenAI said [2] they have 50M subscribers and in another place they said 40% of mobile revenue comes from USA. That itself accounts for 10M paid subscribers within USA which is 5 times the estimation from this post using ChatGPT alone, that too from February. [1] https://epoch.ai/data/polling/2026-03 https://epoch.ai/data/polling/2026-03 [2] https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone

SLHamlet 2mo ago
Open AI is fudging its wording by saying more than "9 million paying business users rely on ChatGPT for work, and startups, enterprises, and governments" -- IE they're blending together paying consumers with businesses. Also not setting a time frame, so no idea how many of them are recurring users. Other source is questionable since (for starters) it relies on sampling and mentions a 10% inaccuracy (!) rate. The 2-3% number is from two banks, based on direct payment card data.
- simianwords 2mo ago
  These are numbers that even skeptics are not skeptical of. Worth toning down your skepticism. It’s a bit nutty to dismiss a neutral poll as well as disclosed numbers by the companies - two different sources for two different companies. At some point it must start dawning on you https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-projects-chatgpt-plus-subscriptions-to-drop-by-80-from-44-million-in-2025-to-9-million-in-2026-made-up-using-cheaper-subscriptions-somehow https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-projects-chatgpt-plus-sub...
  - SLHamlet 2mo ago
    OK well Zitron is citing The Information which is generally solid, but you're kinda burying the lede. According to this, it's 9 million subscribers because... "OpenAI projects an 80% decline... from 44 million in 2025 to 9 million in 2026" [!!!] Surely there's reason to be skeptical when OpenAI's own internal projection indicates a massive, massive loss in subscribers? I'm still inclined to believe OpenAI's projection was too optimistic. The bank report says that average subscriptions only last 7 months, so that would also help explain the rapid churn. BTW, the number of global WoW subscribers is currently about... 9 million.
    - simianwords 2mo ago
      > OpenAI projects an 80% decline... from 44 million in 2025 to 9 million in 2026 I'm curious to know why you think OpenAI is predicting that their subscribers would decline. Why would the company be so bearish about their own financials?
      - SLHamlet 2mo ago
        This is an internal leak The Information reported, as I understand it. Compare and contrast Sam Altman externally saying the most ridiculous bullshit.
        simianwords 1mo ago
        Sure but why would you miss this part from the same leak? > OpenAI at the start of this year forecast that consumer subscribers to ChatGPT Go … would surge about 36 times to 112 million this year
- TitaRusell 2mo ago
  You cannot fudge your books. At the end of the day we will see if the AI cult is caught swimming naked. I was there when pets.com happened.

SLHamlet 2mo ago

Open AI is fudging its wording by saying more than "9 million paying business users rely on ChatGPT for work, and startups, enterprises, and governments" -- IE they're blending together paying consumers with businesses. Also not setting a time frame, so no idea how many of them are recurring users. Other source is questionable since (for starters) it relies on sampling and mentions a 10% inaccuracy (!) rate. The 2-3% number is from two banks, based on direct payment card data.

simianwords 2mo ago
These are numbers that even skeptics are not skeptical of. Worth toning down your skepticism. It’s a bit nutty to dismiss a neutral poll as well as disclosed numbers by the companies - two different sources for two different companies. At some point it must start dawning on you https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-projects-chatgpt-plus-subscriptions-to-drop-by-80-from-44-million-in-2025-to-9-million-in-2026-made-up-using-cheaper-subscriptions-somehow https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-projects-chatgpt-plus-sub...
- SLHamlet 2mo ago
  OK well Zitron is citing The Information which is generally solid, but you're kinda burying the lede. According to this, it's 9 million subscribers because... "OpenAI projects an 80% decline... from 44 million in 2025 to 9 million in 2026" [!!!] Surely there's reason to be skeptical when OpenAI's own internal projection indicates a massive, massive loss in subscribers? I'm still inclined to believe OpenAI's projection was too optimistic. The bank report says that average subscriptions only last 7 months, so that would also help explain the rapid churn. BTW, the number of global WoW subscribers is currently about... 9 million.
  - simianwords 2mo ago
    > OpenAI projects an 80% decline... from 44 million in 2025 to 9 million in 2026 I'm curious to know why you think OpenAI is predicting that their subscribers would decline. Why would the company be so bearish about their own financials?
    - SLHamlet 2mo ago
      This is an internal leak The Information reported, as I understand it. Compare and contrast Sam Altman externally saying the most ridiculous bullshit.
      - simianwords 1mo ago
        Sure but why would you miss this part from the same leak? > OpenAI at the start of this year forecast that consumer subscribers to ChatGPT Go … would surge about 36 times to 112 million this year
TitaRusell 2mo ago
You cannot fudge your books. At the end of the day we will see if the AI cult is caught swimming naked. I was there when pets.com happened.