This feels like Claude thought to me—assertions and comparisons that look impressive on the surface, but kind of make me scratch my head the more I think about

This feels like Claude thought to me—assertions and comparisons that look impressive on the surface, but kind of make me scratch my head the more I think about them. I think what made me throw in the towel was “Figure 2 — Two Instruments, One Shape” [0]. That chart comparing when contracts reset. Weirdly consistent norms! [looks at the sourcing] Oh… it’s… not from data at all… it’s just notional… Is there anything here other than “the people financing the factory are betting that it’ll be able to sell what it makes once it’s built”? I mean… isn’t “an instrument that splits time in two” kind of… what capital financing is? And this risk is what earns investors their interest, and the rest of the financial system involves different ways for people to calibrate their bets on the risk materializing? Including derivative instruments that allow investors to smear out the point-in-time “cliffs” this writer is concerned about? If you think the revenue is never going to come, you can bet on that now. Or go into the distressed datacenter acquisition business to prepare! Conversely if Payment Day comes and you think they just need a couple more months, you can adjust the loan or make them a new loan to cover those first few months’ payments, etc., right? Since both parties stand to lose if it blows up completely, unless it’d be worth more to sell to somebody else? These are also not individual homeowners’ “investments.” The risk is coordinated, and it’s big, but we know that already, right? Yes we know the revenue, yes it’s different from the costs of paying down their capital investments, yes both are reported on the financial disclosures. How is the claim here any stronger than “all this depends on them actually being able to sell this crap once they get it built”? [0] https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-2DS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F19f0fdfd-6e2f-4f86-8bf2-6a8c32b58781_2038x1218.png https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-2DS!,f_auto,q_auto:...