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>simulated worst-case outburst events from these lakes both in the Tibetan town of Nyalam and downstream at the border with Nepal For context that's not where

>simulated worst-case outburst events from these lakes both in the Tibetan town of Nyalam and downstream at the border with Nepal For context that's not where the flood happened, there's a massive mountain range in between those vallies reaching over 8000m (Shishapangma). In earth science there are thousands of worst case scenario models published, but it's hard to actually predict reality.

21asdffdsa12 1mo ago
Its easy though to bury sensors and sound sirens.
- lazide 1mo ago
  Not in all potential areas across such rough terrain.
  - 21asdffdsa12 1mo ago
    Its a "detect characteristic vibrations" - send to starlink? or if thats the problem- use the river itself and transmit the warning with the speed of sound through water.. by just having some underwater bell upstream. Go full lowtech, but at the risk of no warning if the river is dry at glacier dam break.
    - trompetenaccoun 1mo ago
      There are definitely countries that have very good warning systems. Japan comes to mind. As for Nepal I wouldn't expect it though, and even in China devastating flood events happen regularly in more populated areas than the Himalayas, where people could have been saved if they'd been warned. Despite China's excellent mobile coverage, that doesn't seem to be the issue.
yccs27 1mo ago
It's just the opposite side of the same mountain, used as a case study for modeling GLOF risk. In fact, they prominently cite "Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau" [1], which includes Gyirong Port and the downstream valley as a high risk of GLOFs and notes that many buildings there are exposed to potential flash flooding. Take a look at Fig. 5 [2] - the upper left cluster of dangerous lakes and exposed buildings is the site of the disaster. They also name Jilong, Nyalam, Dingri and Kangding as the Tibetan counties with the highest lake danger; the glacier collapse happened at the border of Jilong county. [1] referenced as Allen et al. (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011 [2] https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2095927319301501-gr5.jpg https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S20959273193015...
aaron695 1mo ago
[dead]
ip26 1mo ago
Clearly the point of this paper was not to flag a specific lake as being a specific problem. It seems pretty clear it's a case study meant to provide generalizable information and principals for remediation, and while they didn't predict the exact glacial lake that would collapse first, they were flagging danger in exactly the right region.

21asdffdsa12 1mo ago

Its easy though to bury sensors and sound sirens.

lazide 1mo ago
Not in all potential areas across such rough terrain.
- 21asdffdsa12 1mo ago
  Its a "detect characteristic vibrations" - send to starlink? or if thats the problem- use the river itself and transmit the warning with the speed of sound through water.. by just having some underwater bell upstream. Go full lowtech, but at the risk of no warning if the river is dry at glacier dam break.
  - trompetenaccoun 1mo ago
    There are definitely countries that have very good warning systems. Japan comes to mind. As for Nepal I wouldn't expect it though, and even in China devastating flood events happen regularly in more populated areas than the Himalayas, where people could have been saved if they'd been warned. Despite China's excellent mobile coverage, that doesn't seem to be the issue.

yccs27 1mo ago

It's just the opposite side of the same mountain, used as a case study for modeling GLOF risk. In fact, they prominently cite "Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau" [1], which includes Gyirong Port and the downstream valley as a high risk of GLOFs and notes that many buildings there are exposed to potential flash flooding. Take a look at Fig. 5 [2] - the upper left cluster of dangerous lakes and exposed buildings is the site of the disaster. They also name Jilong, Nyalam, Dingri and Kangding as the Tibetan counties with the highest lake danger; the glacier collapse happened at the border of Jilong county. [1] referenced as Allen et al. (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011 [2] https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2095927319301501-gr5.jpg https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S20959273193015...

aaron695 1mo ago

[dead]

ip26 1mo ago

Clearly the point of this paper was not to flag a specific lake as being a specific problem. It seems pretty clear it's a case study meant to provide generalizable information and principals for remediation, and while they didn't predict the exact glacial lake that would collapse first, they were flagging danger in exactly the right region.