3 ms·
It's really nice to see a simulator that removes the home country bias. So many of these types of simulations use American data. But that's pretty extreme c
by bryanlarsen 2mo ago
It's really nice to see a simulator that removes the home country bias. So many of these types of simulations use American data. But that's pretty extreme cherry-picking: America has had a pretty exceptional run these last 100+ years. Any retirement simulator cannot assume that America's exceptional growth will continue. Maybe it will, but you cannot plan on a maybe.
- nhootan 2mo agoThanks, that's most of why I built it. A US only backtest is one draw where you already know who won. This is 25 countries over 125 years, block bootstrapped with the domestic country resampled, so something like Japan after 1990 shows up.
- bryanlarsen 2mo agoDo you have Germany 1914 in your dataset? There's no safe withdrawal rate for that particular data point...
- nhootan 2mo agoThe Germany's data is in since 1901, but there is a gap between 1922-1923, cause the underlying dataset, DMS, has no bonds data for that period.