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As a counterpoint, my homelab/home-LLM hardware has appreciated in value by about 60% since I bought it. Of course, it's not real unless I sell, and the value
by dannyw 2mo ago
As a counterpoint, my homelab/home-LLM hardware has appreciated in value by about 60% since I bought it.
Of course, it's not real unless I sell, and the value will eventually go down, but so far I have significant paper profits.
Also, DeepSeek token prices are continuing to _increase_, not decrease.
- swiftcoder 2mo ago> DeepSeek token prices are continuing to _increase_ One increase does not a trend make. And the current crop of models are now undercutting deepseek flash...
- Implicated 2mo agoYou can't possibly think that it's going to get cheaper and cheaper to pay for tokens though. Right? Have you seen what's happening with Codex/Claude subscriptions? Deepseek raising API prices.. We've been getting subsidized tokens for some time now and as the hardware costs skyrocket these labs/people with inference compute are going to continue to clamp down.
- swiftcoder 2mo ago> You can't possibly think that it's going to get cheaper and cheaper to pay for tokens though. Right? Absolutely I do. Each generation of open-weight models has come with significant efficiency improvements, and there are significant hardware gains on the horizon: both increasing competition from Chinese chip manufacturers, and new custom silicon from the established players. And unlike Anthropic and OpenAI, most of the pure inference providers aren't massively leveraged - the more hardware they can bring online, the cheaper they can serve tokens.
- maxglute 2mo ago$40,000 GPU is like few pennies in sand. Only mildly hyperbolic. But a GPU fresh out of fab is $2000 after ASML, TSMC and inputs get their 50-75% margin, then somehow $40k laundered through US financialization / Nvidia margins. Commoditized GPUs shouldn't cost more than 1-2% current price once there's competition.
- rsdhrghrdh 2mo ago[flagged]
- maxglute 2mo agoCompelling argument from only msg on new account.
- selectodude 2mo agoWe’re getting subsidized training. The inference is not a loss leader. And since providers can run hardware at 100 percent 24/7 their per token cost is going to be far below mine, regardless of how long I’m willing to wait for a token to come out.
- keheai_harvey 1mo ago[flagged]