4 ms·

OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI

16 points by eyehurtsme 1mo ago

bezko 1mo ago
Sounds like they haven't heard of the Pareto principle.
- eyehurtsme 1mo ago
  Yep I think they are underestimating the last 20% of work required here, unless they know something we don't...
  - floro 1mo ago
    They know they have to keep lying to relax the inevitable AI bubble crash
- xvdvlinux 1mo ago
  that's true
  - eyehurtsme 1mo ago
    but even if they do know something we don't why say this publicly? Yes, I get you are trying to boost your evaluation in the ongoing "war" against Anthropic and now XAI but I'm not sure how ready society is for AGI
    - xvdvlinux 1mo ago
      This reminds me of that time Anthropic publicly admitted that Claude was generating "anxiety" patterns within its neural networks and the worst part is that, instead of acting ethically, they chose to directly manipulate "those vectors" to see what would happen and specially what is happening inside those companies could trigger a legal dilemma in the future we (society) are not prepared to deal with that
eyehurtsme 1mo ago
From the author: "OpenAI’s charter defines AGI as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” Its leaders won’t quite declare they’ve reached that threshold. But they no longer speak about it as a distant abstraction. Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as the moment AGI was created. Altman told me that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, but that by the end of the year the company would have an internal system he would call AGI." When will that internal system make it out to the public? Or should it ever be released to the public is probably the better question...
- ksec 1mo ago
  I mean Open AI has the incentive and history of hyping it up. And the general rule the last 20% would take the same amount of time as they got the first 80%. But having said that, it is getting ridiculously good and plenty of people find enough value out of AI as of today. In terms of hardware we already knew what the next 3 to 4 years would be like. There seems to be enough work on optimisation to further enhance the model.
- mdp2021 1mo ago
  Let us make it clear: "outperforming humans at most economically valuable work" is not AGI. AGI is when you implemented Intelligence (what intelligent people call "intelligence"). One example (of the many given many times) remains "adherence to truth": to get to the AGI they must have overcome the delioriousness issue - the outputs cannot be delirious. And another thing: if you can implement general Intelligence, you will also be able to achieve /optimized/ intelligence... As in: "here are all the theorems, in lean form, bringing to the output".
Iolaum 1mo ago
Claiming AGI when they don't even have the best performing LLM out is a bit bold :p
- eyehurtsme 1mo ago
  This sounds like something you say to get your evaluation up as you inch closer towards IPO...
- testerius 1mo ago
  Yeah, that's right. But you know they can say whatever they want :D
- heaney-555 1mo ago
  OpenAI doesn't have the best-performing public model, but it's an open secret that Astra, the internal model, is better than anything Anthropic has internally.
  - eMPee584 1mo ago
    For at least another week!!1! The frontier race is probably very tight actually..
YeGoblynQueenne 1mo ago
The title is bullshit. Actual title: >> Inside OpenAI’s Reboot
Plont 1mo ago
You changed the title and made it 93% more misleading. That completely made up number is meaningless. So's "AGI", for that matter.
- mdp2021 1mo ago
  > That completely made up number That «completely made up number» was said by "Chief research officer Mark Chen", and that is news - curious, and somehow interesting. It is in the article, and probably more notable than 'Inside OpenAI’s Reboot'. > Amid all this, company leaders believe they have arrived at the cusp of a milestone that could change the course of humanity: the creation of artificial general intelligence, or AGI. OpenAI’s charter defines AGI as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” Its leaders won’t quite declare they’ve reached that threshold. But they no longer speak about it as a distant abstraction. Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as the moment AGI was created. Altman told me that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, but that by the end of the year the company would have an internal system he would call AGI The submitter is relatively new here (maybe he has not consulted the guidelines that much yet), but I will give a token of my understanding on why one would replace the original title with the "Oh, by the way, <outlandish statement>". > for that matter Nah. Every intellectual dealing with Intelligence should have an idea at least of what is missing ("if that should be a cat where are the ears"). Construct a set difference between an ideal human cognitive system and current LLMs, and you will get an idea approximating AGI.
  - D-Machine 1mo ago
    It is almost certainly a completely made up number though. It's not quite on the same level of emptiness as "rate your emotion on a scale of 1-10", but it might as well be. I.e. are we 80% of the way by the calendar, then if so, as measured by when? We're only about 66% of the way through the current year. Is it that they are 80% of the way through some final totally defined training or tuning procedure? Not likely. And it is 80% of the way to AGI, which is vaguely defined as that which can "outperform humans [by how much? what proportion of humans?] at most [how much, exactly, again?] economically valuable work [what work is not economically valuable?]." Call a spade a spade, the 80% thing is 100% total bullshit (in the Frankfurtian sense, i.e. it is completely unconcerned about truth, and is all just about generating feels).
deleted 1mo ago
[deleted]
mdp2021 1mo ago
AGI on static Neural Networks?! The list of requirements to have AGI is pretty long, and already that first one inconsistency makes the "hmmmm" bell sound.
- BizarroLand 1mo ago
  Exactly. It is reasonable to believe that AGI will never be built on unchanging data, no matter how many times you iterate over it. Computers can and probably do already contain essentially all human knowledge, but without a continuous wave of new data to process and respond to then that surfer known as sentience will never have a wave to ride. Think of the comparisons to human minds. We are constantly assaulted with sight, sound, smell, temperature, gravity, proprioception (the sense of our own bodies in 3 dimensional space), touch, and all of our dozens of other, lesser known senses. We have constant new data input to process in real time and our consciousness sits atop that maelstrom a lonely king. Further, our brain is a marvel of multiple lobes communicating with each other in a frenzy of bioelectricity, and duplicated, and interconnected amongst the duplication, and our consciousness emerges somewhere in the static to make something conceptually tangible. I think LLMs and the technology is fascinating, but it is constructed on unchanging data. Maybe it blips close to consciousness from time to time, but I bet they are no closer to achieving AGI than they were to creating positive power fusion energy from Philo Farnsworth's fusor. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but that's how I see things for now.
  - mdp2021 1mo ago
    It is not a matter of sentience or consciousness - that is unrelated to this meaning of Intelligence (for AGI - "solving problems well"). It is that Intelligence implies continuous reflection, which brings continuous refinement of the set of ideas (of judgements) - which requires a dynamic DB.
    - BizarroLand 1mo ago
      Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a hypothetical type of artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks I am saying that that without sentience, AGI will not happen, and that the current system does not allow for sentience any more than firecrackers make usable light.
mdp2021 1mo ago
And there we are, on another nudge to the verge of dystopia, to be added to the many that raised in these decades: > It’s a whole menu of new ventures for a company that recently vowed to ditch distracting side quests. Asked to sum it all up, Brockman described the vision in two words: “personal AGI”. He imagines billions of people with superintelligent personal assistants, just waiting for direction. “You have almost an AGI, maybe soon truly an AGI, in your pocket”, he says. “What is it you want?” A consultant in presumably a non-anonymous context, owned by an enterprise - an entity that can collect personal information and resides outside one's premises. It takes a huge tidal wave of immaturity to suppose that as aproblematic.
AngryData 1mo ago
Yeah and the romans were 80% of the way to a steam engine. It only took another 2000 years to complete it.

16 points by eyehurtsme 1mo ago

bezko 1mo ago

Sounds like they haven't heard of the Pareto principle.

eyehurtsme 1mo ago
Yep I think they are underestimating the last 20% of work required here, unless they know something we don't...
- floro 1mo ago
  They know they have to keep lying to relax the inevitable AI bubble crash
xvdvlinux 1mo ago
that's true
- eyehurtsme 1mo ago
  but even if they do know something we don't why say this publicly? Yes, I get you are trying to boost your evaluation in the ongoing "war" against Anthropic and now XAI but I'm not sure how ready society is for AGI
  - xvdvlinux 1mo ago
    This reminds me of that time Anthropic publicly admitted that Claude was generating "anxiety" patterns within its neural networks and the worst part is that, instead of acting ethically, they chose to directly manipulate "those vectors" to see what would happen and specially what is happening inside those companies could trigger a legal dilemma in the future we (society) are not prepared to deal with that

eyehurtsme 1mo ago

From the author: "OpenAI’s charter defines AGI as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” Its leaders won’t quite declare they’ve reached that threshold. But they no longer speak about it as a distant abstraction. Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as the moment AGI was created. Altman told me that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, but that by the end of the year the company would have an internal system he would call AGI." When will that internal system make it out to the public? Or should it ever be released to the public is probably the better question...

ksec 1mo ago
I mean Open AI has the incentive and history of hyping it up. And the general rule the last 20% would take the same amount of time as they got the first 80%. But having said that, it is getting ridiculously good and plenty of people find enough value out of AI as of today. In terms of hardware we already knew what the next 3 to 4 years would be like. There seems to be enough work on optimisation to further enhance the model.
mdp2021 1mo ago
Let us make it clear: "outperforming humans at most economically valuable work" is not AGI. AGI is when you implemented Intelligence (what intelligent people call "intelligence"). One example (of the many given many times) remains "adherence to truth": to get to the AGI they must have overcome the delioriousness issue - the outputs cannot be delirious. And another thing: if you can implement general Intelligence, you will also be able to achieve /optimized/ intelligence... As in: "here are all the theorems, in lean form, bringing to the output".

Iolaum 1mo ago

Claiming AGI when they don't even have the best performing LLM out is a bit bold :p

eyehurtsme 1mo ago
This sounds like something you say to get your evaluation up as you inch closer towards IPO...
testerius 1mo ago
Yeah, that's right. But you know they can say whatever they want :D
heaney-555 1mo ago
OpenAI doesn't have the best-performing public model, but it's an open secret that Astra, the internal model, is better than anything Anthropic has internally.
- eMPee584 1mo ago
  For at least another week!!1! The frontier race is probably very tight actually..

YeGoblynQueenne 1mo ago

The title is bullshit. Actual title: >> Inside OpenAI’s Reboot

Plont 1mo ago

You changed the title and made it 93% more misleading. That completely made up number is meaningless. So's "AGI", for that matter.

mdp2021 1mo ago
> That completely made up number That «completely made up number» was said by "Chief research officer Mark Chen", and that is news - curious, and somehow interesting. It is in the article, and probably more notable than 'Inside OpenAI’s Reboot'. > Amid all this, company leaders believe they have arrived at the cusp of a milestone that could change the course of humanity: the creation of artificial general intelligence, or AGI. OpenAI’s charter defines AGI as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” Its leaders won’t quite declare they’ve reached that threshold. But they no longer speak about it as a distant abstraction. Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as the moment AGI was created. Altman told me that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, but that by the end of the year the company would have an internal system he would call AGI The submitter is relatively new here (maybe he has not consulted the guidelines that much yet), but I will give a token of my understanding on why one would replace the original title with the "Oh, by the way, <outlandish statement>". > for that matter Nah. Every intellectual dealing with Intelligence should have an idea at least of what is missing ("if that should be a cat where are the ears"). Construct a set difference between an ideal human cognitive system and current LLMs, and you will get an idea approximating AGI.
- D-Machine 1mo ago
  It is almost certainly a completely made up number though. It's not quite on the same level of emptiness as "rate your emotion on a scale of 1-10", but it might as well be. I.e. are we 80% of the way by the calendar, then if so, as measured by when? We're only about 66% of the way through the current year. Is it that they are 80% of the way through some final totally defined training or tuning procedure? Not likely. And it is 80% of the way to AGI, which is vaguely defined as that which can "outperform humans [by how much? what proportion of humans?] at most [how much, exactly, again?] economically valuable work [what work is not economically valuable?]." Call a spade a spade, the 80% thing is 100% total bullshit (in the Frankfurtian sense, i.e. it is completely unconcerned about truth, and is all just about generating feels).

deleted 1mo ago

[deleted]

mdp2021 1mo ago

AGI on static Neural Networks?! The list of requirements to have AGI is pretty long, and already that first one inconsistency makes the "hmmmm" bell sound.

BizarroLand 1mo ago
Exactly. It is reasonable to believe that AGI will never be built on unchanging data, no matter how many times you iterate over it. Computers can and probably do already contain essentially all human knowledge, but without a continuous wave of new data to process and respond to then that surfer known as sentience will never have a wave to ride. Think of the comparisons to human minds. We are constantly assaulted with sight, sound, smell, temperature, gravity, proprioception (the sense of our own bodies in 3 dimensional space), touch, and all of our dozens of other, lesser known senses. We have constant new data input to process in real time and our consciousness sits atop that maelstrom a lonely king. Further, our brain is a marvel of multiple lobes communicating with each other in a frenzy of bioelectricity, and duplicated, and interconnected amongst the duplication, and our consciousness emerges somewhere in the static to make something conceptually tangible. I think LLMs and the technology is fascinating, but it is constructed on unchanging data. Maybe it blips close to consciousness from time to time, but I bet they are no closer to achieving AGI than they were to creating positive power fusion energy from Philo Farnsworth's fusor. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but that's how I see things for now.
- mdp2021 1mo ago
  It is not a matter of sentience or consciousness - that is unrelated to this meaning of Intelligence (for AGI - "solving problems well"). It is that Intelligence implies continuous reflection, which brings continuous refinement of the set of ideas (of judgements) - which requires a dynamic DB.
  - BizarroLand 1mo ago
    Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a hypothetical type of artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks I am saying that that without sentience, AGI will not happen, and that the current system does not allow for sentience any more than firecrackers make usable light.

mdp2021 1mo ago

And there we are, on another nudge to the verge of dystopia, to be added to the many that raised in these decades: > It’s a whole menu of new ventures for a company that recently vowed to ditch distracting side quests. Asked to sum it all up, Brockman described the vision in two words: “personal AGI”. He imagines billions of people with superintelligent personal assistants, just waiting for direction. “You have almost an AGI, maybe soon truly an AGI, in your pocket”, he says. “What is it you want?” A consultant in presumably a non-anonymous context, owned by an enterprise - an entity that can collect personal information and resides outside one's premises. It takes a huge tidal wave of immaturity to suppose that as aproblematic.

AngryData 1mo ago

Yeah and the romans were 80% of the way to a steam engine. It only took another 2000 years to complete it.