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https://unclimatesummit.org/comparing-climate-impacts-at-1-5c-2c-3c-and-4c/ https://unclimatesummit.org/comparing-climate-impacts-at-1-5... > there is no certa

by sfn42 2mo ago

https://unclimatesummit.org/comparing-climate-impacts-at-1-5c-2c-3c-and-4c/ https://unclimatesummit.org/comparing-climate-impacts-at-1-5... > there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible … the projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur. Bonus: https://www.dpg-physik.de/veroeffentlichungen/publikationen/stellungnahmen-der-dpg/klima-energie/klimaaufruf/stellungnahme_de-en https://www.dpg-physik.de/veroeffentlichungen/publikationen/... > the climate change mitigation goals which have been pledged are far too low (ambition gap), and the measures which are currently being implemented and planned are not sufficient to achieve even these inadequate goals (realisation gap). This has far-reaching consequences: There is a strong probability that the ambition gap will lead to a temperature rise of 2 to 5 degrees Centigrade compared to pre-industrial temperatures by 2100, the realisation gap to a further rise of several degrees Centigrade.[1,2,VI] There is a danger that the mean temperature will already have risen by 3 degrees Centigrade by 2050

senordevnyc 2mo ago
there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible That's very different from your certainty that our civilization will end. Even just reading through their list of impacts at +4C, it's horrific, but pretty clearly not civilization-ending. IMO, this kind of hyperbole does a lot of damage to your cause. The reality is bad enough, you don't need to make things up. People eventually stop believing the boy who cries wolf.
- sfn42 2mo ago
  What do you think adapt means? If we do not adapt we die. Those are the options. If we cannot adapt to the new climate on Earth we can not live on Earth. And we sure can't live anywhere else. I'm not "crying wolf". You, like most people just don't want to hear it. That's why most (especially the "officially accepted") climate models are unrealistically optimistic even with their worst case scenarios. Because people who tell the truth are considered alarmist and people who sugar coat it are ignored. Just to be clear, and because some people inexplicably seem to consider this worth even talking about, I'm not saying there won't be any humans anywhere. That might happen but there might also be some habitable places left at least for a while, maybe for a long time. Nobody knows exactly what's going to happen. If 80% of the global population were to perish I would consider this "prophecy" fulfilled. It's not important to me whether some people survive somewhere because the point is I don't want to live through (or, overwhelmingly more likely, die during) the process leading up to that and I don't want to put a new person into the world who will have to live through that. That's where my concern ends, I don't care what happens after the world as we know it is gone. Humans do inhumane things to each other during hard times, and I guarantee you, regardless of how you define words like adaptation and civilization, there's extremely hard times coming.
  - defrost 2mo ago
    > If we do not adapt we die To wit: Russian cowboys learn to wrangle a brand new beef industry - https://whyy.org/segments/russian-cowboys-learn-to-wrangle-a-brand-new-beef-industry/ https://whyy.org/segments/russian-cowboys-learn-to-wrangle-a... Getting an early start on skill sets before Siberia replaces the American cattle plains.
  - senordevnyc 2mo ago
    Climate change won’t even kill 10% of humanity. I do not understand why people are so pessimistic about our ability to adapt. That’s how we created this problem in the first place! Of course we’re not going to just lay down and die. 80% is completely ridiculous and there’s not a shred of evidence for it, is there? I understand that you don’t think you’re being alarmist, of course. But why would I think some random internet commenter is more credible with their predictions that are much worse than the IPCC and other scientific consensus?

by sfn42 2mo ago

senordevnyc 2mo ago

there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible That's very different from your certainty that our civilization will end. Even just reading through their list of impacts at +4C, it's horrific, but pretty clearly not civilization-ending. IMO, this kind of hyperbole does a lot of damage to your cause. The reality is bad enough, you don't need to make things up. People eventually stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

sfn42 2mo ago
What do you think adapt means? If we do not adapt we die. Those are the options. If we cannot adapt to the new climate on Earth we can not live on Earth. And we sure can't live anywhere else. I'm not "crying wolf". You, like most people just don't want to hear it. That's why most (especially the "officially accepted") climate models are unrealistically optimistic even with their worst case scenarios. Because people who tell the truth are considered alarmist and people who sugar coat it are ignored. Just to be clear, and because some people inexplicably seem to consider this worth even talking about, I'm not saying there won't be any humans anywhere. That might happen but there might also be some habitable places left at least for a while, maybe for a long time. Nobody knows exactly what's going to happen. If 80% of the global population were to perish I would consider this "prophecy" fulfilled. It's not important to me whether some people survive somewhere because the point is I don't want to live through (or, overwhelmingly more likely, die during) the process leading up to that and I don't want to put a new person into the world who will have to live through that. That's where my concern ends, I don't care what happens after the world as we know it is gone. Humans do inhumane things to each other during hard times, and I guarantee you, regardless of how you define words like adaptation and civilization, there's extremely hard times coming.
- defrost 2mo ago
  > If we do not adapt we die To wit: Russian cowboys learn to wrangle a brand new beef industry - https://whyy.org/segments/russian-cowboys-learn-to-wrangle-a-brand-new-beef-industry/ https://whyy.org/segments/russian-cowboys-learn-to-wrangle-a... Getting an early start on skill sets before Siberia replaces the American cattle plains.
- senordevnyc 2mo ago
  Climate change won’t even kill 10% of humanity. I do not understand why people are so pessimistic about our ability to adapt. That’s how we created this problem in the first place! Of course we’re not going to just lay down and die. 80% is completely ridiculous and there’s not a shred of evidence for it, is there? I understand that you don’t think you’re being alarmist, of course. But why would I think some random internet commenter is more credible with their predictions that are much worse than the IPCC and other scientific consensus?