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I think within 12 months we’re going to see a frontier (inc open models) that’s so good at almost all human-directed tasks that which model you use just won’t m
by petesergeant 1mo ago
I think within 12 months we’re going to see a frontier (inc open models) that’s so good at almost all human-directed tasks that which model you use just won’t matter. Only differences that remain will be in deep research or very long-range tasks.
- stingraycharles 1mo agoPeople were saying this last year, and they’ll be saying the exact same thing next year. The goalpost keeps moving.
- Tepix 1mo agoIt‘s already happening, people are using cheaper models because they are good enough
- petesergeant 1mo agoSomeone else having been too early on a prediction has little bearing on my prediction. A year ago almost nobody was using open models as daily drivers, today they are. When I run out of Fable and Sol credits in a week, I switch to GLM5.3, and it's not quite there, but it's good enough for productive work.